It only gets harder from here

During 2019, coalition unity will become increasingly difficult to maintain.

The iron logic of our three yearly MMP cycle means that New Zealand First and the Greens will need to start displaying their independence, if only to convince voters they’re both making an essential contribution to the overall agenda. In the process, the nature of the coalition itself will become apparent. Is Jacinda Ardern heading a radically reformist government, or one that’s more like the Clark government, i.e. mainly intent on managing business as usual, but with a few social gains on the side?

The clues will emerge early. The teachers pay dispute still has to be resolved, and the outcome will constitute a down payment on the three-year cycle of reform facing the education sector. In mid-February, the final report of the Tax Working Group will be delivered at almost the same time as the Welfare Expert Advisory Group reports back on social welfare entitlements. The government’ s response in those key areas – and to the recently released report on mental health services – will define its true identity.

Early 2019 will also reveal the extent of DHB amalgamation advocated by the Heather Simpson-led review of health and disability services, an overhaul that will also bring significant changes to the delivery of primary health care. All of these funding commitments will be unfolding against the backdrop of a slowing domestic economy, and a global economy that’s yet to feel the full impact of rising United States interest rates and China’s debt problems.

Within the coalition, tradeoffs will need to be made, and managed. Defence Minister Ron Mark, for instance, will be bringing a large bill to Cabinet for the replacement aircraft for the C-130 Hercules, and this will probably require NZ First swallowing a softer line on social welfare than its conservative supporters would like. Tough. For obvious reasons, Labour and the Greens cannot afford to be seen to be dishing out more billions for the armed forces, while maintaining a tight spending rein on teachers and beneficiaries.

Inevitably, the coalition will come under strain from such trade-offs. Last year, the need for a display of unity tended to trump all other priorities. Yet 2019 will be the year for winning the concrete achievements that each of the three governing parties will be aiming to carry into the 2020 election campaign. At times, the jostling won’t be pretty.

Meanwhile, National will be going through its own reality check. If leader Simon Bridges fails to score significant gains from the opportunities that the first few months of 2019 will provide, the party will need to decide by mid-year whether it can afford to contest the 2020 election with Bridges at the helm. Problem being, the alternatives (Amy Adams, Judith Collins) are not stellar. A national outbreak of Judithmania seems unlikely.

In sum, a coalition defined until now by its good intentions, will be judged by its achievements this year. At the same time, a business sector that felt shaken by the relatively benign trading conditions of last year will need to stop whining and toughen up. In politics 2019, the easy part is over for everyone involved. 03 520 8900 or nme.support@stuff.co.nz

Paula Hulburt, 027 404 1325 or paula.hulburt@stuff.co.nz

Ian Allen 03 520 8900 or ian.allen@stuff.co.nz

Reporters, 03 520 8900 or mailbox@stuff.co.nz

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The coalition faces a large bill this year for the replacement of the RNZAF’s ageing Hercules transport aircraft.