Is this NZ First’s swan song?

vote at the first MMPelection in 1996 won 10.4 per cent at its next peak in 2002 and 8.7 per cent when it last crested in 2014. It currently has 7.2 per cent.

NZ First also gets punished by voters after it hitches up with a government.

Peters’ coalition with National after the 1996 election ended disastrously two years later when he was sacked from the cabinet by the new prime minister, Jenny Shipley, and several of his MPs jumped from the waka. In the 1999 election, NZ First’s support slumped to just 4.3 per cent.

In 2005, Peters entered a confidence and supply agreement with Labour. Peters accepted the post of Foreign Minister, despite earlier publicly rejecting the ‘‘baubles of office’’. At the 2008 election, NZ First was thrown out of Parliament.

After both stints in government support, NZ First’s base slid to fewer than 100,000 voters. If history repeats, the party – which currently has no electorate MPs – would be pushed well under the 5 per cent threshold and its current nine MPs would be out by the next election.

While it may seem early to be talking about the 2020 vote, NZ First’s chequered history and future prospects may well play a part in Peters’ decision whether to support National or Labour and the Greens into government for the next three years. His decision to team up with National in 1996 was unpopular with his supporters, who had voted for a change of Jim Bolger’s government.

That may be the mood this year also. A Colmar Brunton poll on September 29 – almost a week after the election – suggested two-thirds of NZ First voters might prefer Peters to opt for a Labour-led government.

However, Peters’ antipathy towards the Greens could make it difficult for him to engage in a three-way Labour-led coalition.

The remaining choice is for Peters to stay on the cross benches and support one minority government or the other – or at least abstain from key votes. That option is unlikely to please anyone.

So, while Peters is portrayed as the player who holds the trump cards, the truth is that his hand is not as strong as it used to be.

His endurance as the serial kingmaker (or queenmaker) in New Zealand politics is testament to Peters’ political nous and party leadership skills.

But if Peters wants his party to have a real future, he will need to look for new ways to take it forward.