Testing year ahead for Trump
The Constitution of the United States was passed in the name of ‘we the people’. The background was their war of Independence and their fight against the British monarchy which could not be held to account. As part of their framework to ensure domestic tranquillity, promote the general welfare and secure the benefits of liberty for themselves and posterity, they agreed on unique fundamental principles by which to govern their country.
This included the rule that the president ‘‘shall be removed from Office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors’’. This clause gave the American people, through their Congress – as in the House of Representatives and the Senate combined – the ability to remove their leaders if they committed treason, corruption or egregious abuses of their authority.
Congressman Al Green utilised this provision last Wednesday as he attempted to start proceedings on impeaching the 45th President of the United States on the grounds that he is, ‘‘fuelling an alt-right hate machine’’ that is ‘‘causing immediate injury to American society’’.
This attempt failed overwhelmingly in the House of Representatives, with his motion defeated 364 to 58.
Although Green’s action failed, it is possible that further attempts at impeachment are going to cause President Trump much more trouble after the end of 2018.
This will occur as the epicentres of any one of the three investigations currently looking at aspects of the Trump Administration start escalating in their shaking. These investigations are examining questions relating to collusion with Russia and/or abuse of power. Future investigations could also be tasked to examine conflicts of interest.
Each of these investigations has the potential to provide the movement that could, in theory, topple the president.
The investigation that is currently causing the most difficulty for the president, as led by Special Counsel Robert
Mueller, is focusing on ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. This has recently netted its first big fish, Michael Flynn, the former national security adviser to the president, who has pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI and is now co-operating with the Special Counsel.
Despite this confession and cooperation by Flynn, impeachment is still a distant proposition. The problem in this instance is that it is not yet clear whether the president has actually obstructed justice in the gap between Flynn and the Whitehouse. Similarly, Flynn pleading guilty does not prove collusion between Trump and Russia.
Even if the Russians (who appear to have tried to influence the American election) acted in a particular way, in exchange for some as yet undisclosed quid pro quo, did occur, it is not clear that this collusion is a ’high crime’ or other ’misdemeanor’.
Nevertheless, it is fair to suggest that when the Founding Fathers created their constitution guaranteeing autonomy, they would not have looked favourably upon someone gaining their highest office with the help of foreign powers.
Although such questions vex even the most skilled legally trained professionals in this area, lawyers and judges are not needed to resolve them. This is because impeachment, which is analogous to indictment in regular court proceedings, is dealt with by Congress, not the judiciary.
Impeachment is a political question. Impeachment is not a legal question. Only the two arms of the Congress, namely the Senate and the House of Representatives, can answer if a president should be impeached.
To successfully impeach the president, the Senate and the House of Representatives have to work together in terms of both agreeing the charge and then conviction via a supermajority.
Without both parts, the impeachment will fail. Thus, Bill Clinton was impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice in connection with his sexual dalliance with Monica Lewinsky by the House of Representatives but conviction by the Senate was avoided, as the two-thirds majority required to convict, was not reached.
The numbers mentioned above hint at the even larger problem in this equation, namely, that the Republicans currently hold a solid majority in the House and a slim majority in the Senate. This means that impeachment is very unlikely to even be considered at this point in time.
This might change on November 16, 2018 when there will be mid-term elections for the American Congress, at which point all of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be up for grabs.
If Trump loses control of Congress, then the possibility of impeachment becomes very real. Until then, the only game in town is watching the pot slowly come to the boil.