Until PM visits China, questions will remain

But even if the Air NZ flight is forgotten, the episode will be repeated.

Back in October, Tourism Minister Kelvin

Davis was so excited by the coming China-new Zealand year of tourism that he posted an official statement on the Beehive website. An opening ceremony event was to be held at Te Papa on February 20, coinciding with the hosting of 2300-year-old Chinese artefacts as part of the Terracotta Warriors: Guardians of Immortality exhibition.

However, a fortnight ago, the Chinese (the hosts of the event) unexpectedly cancelled. ‘‘Officials are working with the Chinese embassy to get a new date confirmed for this event,’’ a spokesman for Davis said.

Scheduling clashes happen. The problem for the Ardern Government is that the language is almost identical to a key question she cannot answer: when are you going to China?

Ardern is left trotting out the line that this is a scheduling issue, and the only thing keeping her from an official visit is scheduling clashes. This has been the case for some time; journalists were asked to prepare for a trip in December, then it was abruptly cancelled. The longer the situation goes on, the more it appears that the excuse that the problems are caused by scheduling issues is simply a subtle diplomatic slap.

For weeks there have been rumours that officials at the Chinese embassy have warned Mfat the trip is not happening until other issues are resolved, something the ministry denies.

Exactly how much the difficulties in the relationship with China can be blamed on the Government is hard to know. National, which showed virtual fealty to Beijing during its nine years in power, would have us believe things would be better if it were still in charge.

But the relationship with China and many of our close allies is also changing.

If National leader Simon Bridges really wants to convince us things would be different with him as prime minister, he should deliver a clear statement of support for Huawei playing a major role in the 5G network, putting New Zealand at odds with the rest of the Five Eyes network.

Whether the current low-level tension escalates is impossible to know. On the one hand, China faces bigger problems, in its ongoing trade war with the United States, meaning it cannot afford to get into unnecessary fights elsewhere.

On the other, if China wanted to demonstrate its power to cause considerable pain to a country resisting its expansion, while causing relatively little pain to its own economy, New Zealand could be an attractive target.