Whitehall’s secret no-deal plan

Britain faces shortages of fuel, food and medicine, a three-month meltdown at its ports, a hard border with Ireland and rising costs in social care in the event of a nodeal Brexit, according to an unprecedented leak of government documents that lay bare the gaps in contingency planning.

The documents, which set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than worstcase scenarios, have emerged as the UK looks increasingly likely to crash out of the EU without a deal.

Compiled this month by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, the dossier offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation’s infrastructure.

The file, marked ‘‘officialsensitive’’ – requiring security clearance on a ‘‘need to know’’ basis – is remarkable because it gives the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’S readiness for a no-deal Brexit.

It states that the public and businesses remain largely unprepared for no deal and that growing ‘‘EU exit fatigue’’ has hampered contingency planning which has stalled since the UK’S original departure date in March.

A senior Whitehall source said: ‘‘This is not Project Fear – this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case.’’

The revelations include:

The government expects the return of a hard border in Ireland as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove ‘‘unsustainable"; this may spark protests, road blockages and ‘‘direct action’’

Logjams caused by months of border delays could ‘‘affect fuel distribution’’, potentially disrupting the fuel supply in London and the southeast of England

Up to 85 per cent of lorries using the main Channel crossings ‘‘may not be ready’’ for French customs and could face delays of up to 21⁄2 days

Significant disruption at ports will last up to three months before the flow of traffic ‘‘improves’’ to 50-70 per cent of the current rate

Petrol import tariffs, which the government has set at 0 per cent, will ‘‘inadvertently’’ lead to the closure of two oil refineries, 2000 job losses, widespread strike action and disruptions to fuel availability

Passenger delays at EU airports, St Pancras, Eurotunnel and Dover

Medical supplies will ‘‘be vulnerable to severe extended delays’’ as three-quarters of the UK’S medicines enter the country via the main Channel crossings

The availability of fresh food will be reduced and prices will rise. This could hit ‘‘vulnerable groups’’

Potential clashes between UK and European Economic Area fishing vessels amid predictions that 282 ships will sail in British waters illegally on Brexit day

Protests across the UK, which may ‘‘require significant amounts of police resource[s]’’

Rising costs will hit social care, with ‘‘smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit’’

Gibraltar will face delays of more than four hours at the border with Spain ‘‘for at least a few months’’, which are likely to ‘‘adversely impact’’ its economy

The revelations come as Boris Johnson signals that he would set a date for a general election after the UK has left the EU if Jeremy Corbyn succeeds in a vote of no confidence – preventing rebels from being able to stop a no-deal Brexit. – Sunday Times