All Blacks v England too close to call: Evans

Nick Evans sees the All Blacks’ World Cup semifinal against England being so close ‘‘it’s a toss of a coin’’ to decide the winner.

Evans, the former All Blacks first-five who enjoyed a long and successful career with Harlequins in England, has as good a feel as anyone for the relative merits of the world’s top two ranked teams.

‘‘I’m backing the boys in black but if I’m being honest it’s the toss of a coin,’’ Evans wrote for The Guardian.

‘‘It’s such an evenly matched semifinal – a classic north versus south battle – and whichever team are able to impose their style of how they want the game to be played will end up in the final. I can’t wait.’’

Evans, now involved in coaching at London club Harlequins, sees the keys to a win as England negating New Zealand’s quick recycling of second phase ball or the All Blacks slowing down the power game of the English, particularly up front.

‘‘What New Zealand cannot allow to happen is for England to start building a lead,’’ Evans wrote, noting how a clinical England had carried out their quarterfinal mission against Australia once they got in front.

‘‘As a result I expect New Zealand to have a massive focus on slowing down England’s power game. They’ll be getting off the line and trying to spook the distributors and ensuring that the ball does not get to the outside channels. They will in effect try to say to England: ‘That isn’t working, so what else have you got? How can you cope if the game becomes unstructured?’

‘‘England do have players who can cope well – I think of Jonny May and Anthony Watson – but I just wonder whether they have enough experience of knowing exactly how to handle it on this kind of stage.’’

Evans predicted the usual sort of tactics from the English: ‘‘They will kick accurately, put pressure on New Zealand’s wings and Beauden Barrett at fullback and they will look to squeeze, suffocate and strangle.

‘‘I imagine their line speed will go up another notch – they’ve been flirting with the offside line but they are not getting called up on it so of course they should keep doing it until they are pinged and then adjust.’’

Evans felt England needed to succeed against the All Blacks where the Irish had failed.

‘‘If there is one thing England must do if they are going to beat New Zealand and reach the World Cup final it is to deny them quick ball,’’ Evans wrote.

‘‘Ireland were not able to do that in the first half and New Zealand had a field day. The game was in effect over by halftime because the All Blacks bossed the breakdown.

‘‘I have 100% belief that England are capable of that. It is not entirely reliant on Tom Curry and Sam Underhill but judging by their performances against Australia, they are more than able to deny New Zealand the kind of ball they thrive on.’’