Poll: Nats drop below 40
Labour and its coalition partners are riding high while National have dropped below 40 per cent support in a recent Stuff/yougov poll.
The poll put Labour at 41 per cent support, National at 38 per cent, both the Greens and NZ First at 8 per cent, and ACT at 2 per cent.
On these numbers Labour could govern with either the Greens or NZ First with a tight 61-seat majority, while National would have no path to power.
The poll was conducted between November 7 and 11 by Yougov, before Stuff published a series of revelations about donations to the NZ First Foundation, so is likely to be slightly out of date.
It is the first poll published by Stuff from Yougov, a global polling firm which runs regular polls for The Australian, The Times, The Economist, and NBC News.
A spokesperson for National leader Simon Bridges said the poll did not match their own figures and was incorrect.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said it was ‘‘encouraging’’ to see the poll as it showed Labour building on its election result.
‘‘It’s really encouraging to see all of the coalition parties up when we compare the numbers against the last election. We’ve taken on some big challenges but we’re making good progress — I’d like to think this poll reflects that,’’ Ardern said.
Ardern is also far ahead of Bridges in favourability.
The methodology for the Yougov poll is different to other political polls in New Zealand, which rely on phone-calling or a mix of phone calling and online responses. It is conducted entirely online by panel of respondents, as are other Yougov polls around the world.
Campbell White, Yougov’s head of polling and public affairs for Asia Pacific, said online sampling was the best way to make sure a wide variety of people were polled.
‘‘The reason is over time we are better able to represent the population online. Rather than just the people who answer their phone and don’t use call screening,’’ White said.
The sample has quotas so various demographics are represented, and the figures are scientifically weighted to match the voting population.
The polling period predated a series of revelations in Stuff about the New Zealand First foundation.
It took in a period where the Government passed its Zero Carbon Bill with near-unanimous support.
Ardern dominant in favourability
Rather than a ‘‘preferred prime minister’’ voters were asked if they had a favourable or unfavourable view of three leading politicians.
Ardern dominated with 62 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable view of her, and 27 per cent saying they had an unfavourable view.
These figures were almost flipped for Bridges – with 59 per cent saying they had an unfavourable view compared to 22 per cent saying they had a favourable view.
Bridges figures were low even with those who said they would vote for National, with just under half (49 per cent) saying they had a favourable view of him and 32 per cent saying they had an unfavourable view.
Ardern recorded 95 per cent support with those who supported the Labour Party, with just 3 per cent of Labour supporters saying they had an unfavourable view.
NZ First and Green supporters solidly backed Ardern too, with 56 per cent favourable views from NZ First supporters and 85 per cent from the Greens.
NZ First leader Winston Peters himself managed slightly higher numbers than Bridges, with 30 per cent of the country saying they had a favourable view of him and 53 per cent saying they had an unfavourable view.
‘‘What’s pretty clear from those numbers is Jacinda [Ardern]’s numbers are really quite strong. Far stronger than we’ve seen for anyone in Australia or the UK in a while in terms of leaders,’’ White said.
How it would play out in seats
The figures in the poll would give Labour two different paths to governing, which requires a 61-seat majority in Parliament.
Assuming ACT win Epsom but no other minor parties win a seat, Labour would win 51 seats to National’s 47.
It could form a coalition with either of its current governing partners NZ First or the Greens, as each would have 10 seats.
This would result in a slim one-seat majority however.
National would not have a viable path to power as, even with ACT’S projected two seats and NZ First’s 10, it would reach only 59 seats, two below the 61 needed.
The Green Party has indicated it is unlikely to ever work with National.
Labour’s easier ride would be complicated if another party were to enter Parliament, however.
If the Ma¯ ori Party were to win a single seat and re-enter Parliament it would upset the maths to the point where Labour would not be able to govern with either the Greens or NZ First alone.