Modelling outlines worst-case scenario

Up to 14,000 New Zealanders could die if coronavirus spread is uncontrolled, according to new modelling by the University of Otago, Wellington.

And speaking to Radio New Zealand yesterday, Professor Nick Wilson, who worked on the modelling, called for much more Covid-19 testing to be done to be rapidly on track to eliminate the virus.

In a worst case scenario – if eliminating the virus failed and spread was uncontrolled – up to 64 per cent of New Zealanders could become sick, up to 32,000 people could need hospitalisation, and up to 14,000 people could die.

‘‘Our modelling was based on the hospitals and ICUS being able to function ... The death rate would certainly increase dramatically if hospitals and ICUS were overwhelmed,’’ Wilson said.

The best case scenario would be the elimination of the virus, which was the strategy New Zealand was following.

‘‘It may mean relatively few hospitalisations and deaths, and it might mean we’ll be able to open up the economy, though maintaining very good border control until we get a vaccine.’’

The key number to watch was the number of cases from community infection, independent of returning travellers.

‘‘We need to do far more testing and far more vigorous contract tracing to be rapidly on the track of elimination.’’

Wilson thought the amount of testing should be ‘‘several times higher’’ than the around 2000 a day now being done ‘‘to start getting a high level of confidence’’. Various Asian countries had much higher levels of testing.

‘‘We really need to ratchet up to those levels, and even in those countries there is concern they maybe losing control, in some cases,’’ he said.

‘‘Basically anyone turning up to an emergency department or a hospital with any respiratory conditions should be tested. And we should be doing random testing in different communities of anyone with any respiratory symptoms to determine how much uncontrolled spread is occurring in the community.’’

While there had been con