Marlborough Express

‘No place on Earth immune to global warming’

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rose an average of 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, or three times the global warming rate, the researcher­s found.

The report on the flipping of temperatur­e trends at the most southerly point comes as abnormal warmth continues to bake the planet’s other polar extreme. The Russian town of Verkhoyans­k last week reported 38C, the warmest reading ever recorded within the Arctic Circle.

For Antarctica, the recent accelerate­d warming is estimated to be about two-thirds the result of natural variabilit­y with the role of rising greenhouse gases contributi­ng about one-third, said Kyle Clem, a post-doctoral research fellow at Wellington’s

Victoria University. The rapid warming ‘‘lies within the upper bounds of natural variabilit­y’’, Clem said. ‘‘It’s extremely rare and it appears very likely that humans played a role.’’

The research shows ‘‘there’s no place on Earth that’s immune to global warming’’, he said. ‘‘There’s nowhere to hide – not even up on the Antarctic Plateau.’’

Sitting at 2835 metres above sea level on a rocky continent, the South Pole is exposed to different weather processes than its polar opposite. The North Pole rests on shifting sea ice with the seabed more than 4 kilometres below.

Clem, with other researcher­s from the US and the UK, found changing circulatio­n patterns in the Pacific and Southern Ocean determine which parts of Antarctica warm or cool. For instance, the western tropical Pacific has periods when it is warmer or cooler than usual.

The warmer period – known as the negative phase of the socalled Interdecad­al Pacific Oscillatio­n – set in about 2000. During this phase, there is more storm activity in the tropics which in turn spawns more high- and lowpressur­e systems that send heat far into the high latitudes.

The circumpola­r westerly winds, which have been strengthen­ing and contractin­g polewards under climate change – also play a role in amplifying the transfer of warmth into Antarctica. When those two patterns align, as they have in recent decades, the South Pole warms but some parts, such as western Antarctica warm at a slow pace or even cool, as the frigid air shifts around.

Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Centre at the University of Pennsylvan­ia, said the study provided ‘‘a very detailed and useful analysis’’ of the forces at play in the far south.

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