No dry July here

the 16th, 17th, 18th. ‘‘So it just depends on where the rain falls, which direction it’s coming from, and whether it falls in the Wairau catchment.’’

Farmers usually relied on good rainfall between May and August to recharge the soil moisture, Agnew said.

‘‘Spring grass growth would often start probably sometime in August. So really wet pasture and water lying about is not good news for farmers because it can cause pugging of pastures [when wet soil gets excessively trampled by stock].

‘‘But if we don’t get more rainfall for the next couple of weeks, then we get some warm temperatures, then they should start to see some good grass growth later in the month.

‘‘We wouldn’t be wanting a large amount of rain in August.’’

July in 2019 and 2020 also had high rainfall, Agnew said. ‘‘Rainfall is very hard to predict into the future, but what the climate scientists are saying is that we will get a lot more variability. Blenheim already gets a lot of variability – we can have very dry months, and we can also have very, very wet months – but that’s going to be exacerbated.’’

With daffodils blooming in Blenheim’s Seymour Square and trees starting to bud, it would be easy to believe that spring has already sprung.

But with Marlborough’s winters warming faster than its summers, and at twice the rate of the global average, Plant and Food Research scientist and weather expert Rob Agnew says the changes in seasonal temperatures don’t bode well for all.

‘‘Our seasons are definitely getting earlier. [And] it would be quite correct to say that winter is getting warmer, and I’ve got plenty of data to support that,’’ he said.

Agnew said records of Blenheim’s yearround temperatures went back as far as the 1930s. Since then, Marlborough had seen its average winter temperature increase by 2.09C, while temperatures in July, in particular, had risen even higher.

‘‘Basically, over the last 90 years the July temperature has increased by 2.2C, which is very substantial,’’ Agnew said.

‘‘If you look back to 1932, we were getting about 62 ground frosts over the three months of winter, but now we’re only getting 31.’’

Temperatures in Blenheim reached 16C yesterday, 4C above the long-term average high for the town.

Winter warmth might be welcomed by many, but the changes could have an adverse effect for some, and a knock-on effect for others, Agnew said.

Warmer weather during the winter months could cause problems for Marlborough’s

expansive vineyards, and their growing season. Earlier bud bursts and late frosts weren’t a good combination, he said.

Along with the dangers of early bud bursts, the warmer climate also posed other risks to grape growers, Agnew said.

‘‘With global warming, and temperatures rising and Marlborough’s winter temperatures appreciably warmer, then insects like aphids, scale insects and mealybugs, a lot of them would usually die off over winter, but if you’re getting warmer temperatures, you’re getting more survival of pest species.’’

A warm and wet July, with pests and insects not dying out over winter, meant Marlborough was likely to see another bugs’ bonanza, with an abundance of flies and other insects next summer, Agnew said.

‘‘This season is very similar to last season because of the rainfall in July. This year and last year are very similar, and the temperatures are pretty similar as well.’’

One person who knows a thing or two about the growth of daffodils is Cancer Society Marlborough centre manager Felicity Spencer. She said early blooms posed their own problems.

‘‘Early daffodils tend to come out at the end of July. This always makes us nervous whether there’ll be enough left by the last Friday of August for Daffodil Day.’’

New Zealand’s Daffodil Day returns this year on Friday, August 26, after being cancelled in 2021 due to Covid restrictions. For more information, or to donate now, start a fundraiser, order fresh flowers, or sign up to volunteer, visit daffodilday.org. nz.