Down to the business end, and about time
Isn’t it nice how things have turned out?
No-one pretends that a fourweek break two-thirds of the way through the Super Rugby season is ideal. But it’s actually left me quite enthused about what might happen over the next three weekends.
Lengthy competitions can become a bore, particularly when the majority of teams are neither use nor ornament. The June test window arrived just when fatigue was setting in and paved the way for an intriguing end to Super Rugby’s round-robin portion.
Now we’ve hit the quarterfinal phase and you quibble – with good reason – about where the games are being staged, but the fact is we have four good games to look forward to and the prospect that a worthy champion will eventually be crowned. It’s hard to ask a lot more from a playoff series than that.
Here’s an idiot’s impression of what might unfold, starting at Canberra’s GIO Stadium:
BRUMBIES v HIGHLANDERS
Everything points to a Highlanders win. Having started the season with a hiss and a roar, the Brumbies have gone backwards and even the belated return of star player David Pocock seems unlikely to stave off elimination.
Meanwhile, the Highlanders have mounted an excellent defence of their title and remain good candidates to go back-to-back. Speed is the absolute essence of their play and it’s hard to see the Brumbies keeping up with them.
The Chiefs, Crusaders and Blues have already put 40 points on the Brumbies this season and it would be a surprise if the Highlanders couldn’t do similar.
Don’t write off Crusaders – Dan
HURRICANES v SHARKS
This time a year ago Wellington was in the grip of Hurricanes fever. The team’s rugby had been so intoxicating that lapsed fans were suddenly believers again, as the Canes romped their way to the regular-season title.
Their ascent to the top of this season’s standings was more unex- pected and less exciting. There’s, arguably, been a more convincing element to this campaign, though. The recent away wins over the Waratahs and Crusaders were hugely impressive and indicated this Hurricanes team is made of increasingly stern stuff.
They have failed to turn up just twice this season – against the Brumbies in round one and Sharks round 11 – and you can’t entirely shake the memory of that second defeat. Even so, you assume the outcome of this Sharks clash will be vastly different.
LIONS v CRUSADERS
If a New Zealand side is to lose a quarterfinal, you imagine it’s this one. Back in New Zealand for a few days after a stint in France, World Cup winning All Blacks first-five Dan Carter retains his faith in the Crusaders.
Carter steered the Crusaders ship around the park from 2003 until last year, playing 141 games for the Super Rugby club.
His former team-mates won’t be
While the Hurricanes are an example of a team who emerged better from the June break, the Crusaders haven’t. It wasn’t so much that they lost to the Chiefs and Hurricanes after the resumption, but the manner of those defeats.
The Crusaders managed three points in the second half of the Chiefs game and none against the Hurricanes and appeared to run out of ideas. Worse, they couldn’t stop the opposition scoring.
Once the team that dominated this part of the season and always made good decisions and forced the other side into errors, the home when he visits Canterbury to see his parents – after being thrashed by the Hurricanes 35-10 last weekend, they’ve taken the long flight to Johannesburg to play second seeds the Lions.
It’s a tough task, but on TV on Thursday a tanned Carter told Breakfast the red and blacks were ‘‘well and truly’’ up to it. Crusaders have had the tables turned on them.
Announcing next year’s coach – while the incumbent was still in contention for the title – doesn’t seem to have helped and there’s a real sense that a wonderful era in New Zealand rugby is over.
STORMERS v CHIEFS
Who knows? The Stormers have enjoyed a soft schedule so it’s hard to get a read on them. The Chiefs are a fine team and the 25-15 loss to the Highlanders was far from inglorious, so you assume they’ll win in Cape Town. It’s just hard to feel entirely certain.