It’s like the Australians cheering for the All Blacks
POLITICAL WEEK tracy.watkins@fairfaxmedia.co.nz Support may be building for Helen Clark’s bid to head the United Nations as John Key talks up her prospects of emerging the compromise candidate.
Clark has long been considered a frontrunner for the job based on her credentials, and shored up that position after being widely rated the winner of a debate with other contenders last week.
To win Clark has to overcome three critical hurdles – a prevailing view that it’s Eastern Europe’s ‘‘turn’’ to lead the UN; winning the backing of all five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the P5), any of which can veto a candidate in order to promote their own pick and, finally, the winning candidate won’t necessarily be chosen on merit, but on the basis of horsetrading between the so-called P5.
For that reason, there has always been a view that the Security Council would prefer someone more malleable than a strong candidate like Clark.
But after a round of meetings in Europe, Key believes momentum may be building behind Clark.
‘‘I think this is actually genuine among the P5 members, a recognition that they need a stronger voice than historically they’ve always had. So of course on the one hand they don’t want to be put under the pump by the new UN Secretary General but ...if the UN doesn’t have a credible voice that’s going to challenge the existing structure of the security council even more. So I think that plays well for Helen because they see her both as having enormous capability and capacity but also dexterity. She’ll be able to understand the subtleties of these things and as we know in international diplomacy there’s a lot of subtlety.’’
But Clark now faces another potential obstacle -- former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has finally been forced into the open as a potential contender, after denying for months that he wanted the job.
The country’s foreign minister, Julie Bishop, confirmed on Monday the new Australian Cabinet would consider whether to nominate Rudd this week.
Rudd also believes he can be the compromise candidate, and is said to have been on the international circuit for months lobbying governments for their backing on that basis.
Australia would have to renege on a previous deal to back Clark if it nominates Rudd – former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott promised his support for Clark’s candidacy and even gave Key a letter promising her Australia’s backing.
But that’s not Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s biggest headache – Rudd is widely disliked in Australian politics, with fellow politicians, and media, lining up to lambast his bid.
One Australian politician labelled him ‘‘dysfunctional’’, ‘‘vengeful’’, ‘‘unstable’’ and ‘‘megalomaniac’’, while another made the comment ‘‘Kevin’s ego makes Donald Trump’s look like a rounding error’’.
Even the fiercely parochial Australian media are urging Turnbull to back Clark over Rudd.
‘‘Kevin vs Helen for UN: there’s no contest,’’ screamed a headline in the Sydney Morning Herald, while the news.com.au website reported some members of the Liberal Cabinet would prefer to back Clark.
‘‘It’s as if a Prime Minister is cheering for the other side when Australia takes to the football field, even when the opponents are Kiwis,’’ wrote Malcolm Farr.
The national divisions over Rudd are in marked contrast to Clark, whose candidacy met with universal backing on this side of the Tasman, even among some of her staunchest political opponents.
A straw poll launches in New York this week and will likely eliminate a number of candidates. Key said people would be ‘‘shocked’’ if Clark didn’t emerge as one of the leading four or five during that process.
‘‘I’ve always taken the view that in a world where vetoes can be applied for all sorts of reasons, and there’s quite a lot of horse trading that’s done, it’s quite possible that Helen Clark could end up a compromise candidate. And if she does that she could get there and that’s why we’ve been genuinely working phones and investing so heavily in her candidacy.’’