Ardern lining up for poll position

live for all New Zealanders, and not just the rich. New Zealand could benefit greatly by having brave ministers like Metiria Turei who are not frightened to take on issues that some would rather ignore.

Right now we’re dealing with a mini-phenomenon in politics. Labour will be hoping it lasts another 45 days. National is desperate for it to stop.

The most crucial thing I took from the Newshub-Reid Research poll this week was Ardern’s rocket launch up the preferred PM rankings.

English was on 27.7, Ardern was up 17 points to 26.3. I expected her to rise – but not this much. Something is happening. She’s now almost neck and neck with Bill English. This really matters.

I have never seen a change of government in 20 years when the preferred PMhasn’t come from the opposition party.

The opposition leader needs to be liked and needs to nudge past the PMof the day.

I saw it in 1999 when Helen Clark went past Jenny Shipley in the One News-Colmar polls at TVNZ.

I never saw Don Brash go past Helen. I saw John Key’s explosion onto the political scene as opposition leader. He finally went past Clark at the time Labour supported the anti-smacking legislation.

So Ardern is poised nicely to consolidate and go past English.

And Labour needs to lock in the 33 per cent party vote result and build.

It’ll need 35-plus in my opinion if it wants a mandate to govern. It may yet go past 37.

Cleverly, Labour looks to have inoculated itself from their bedpals, the hapless Greens and their spectacular own goal and collapse.

The Greens have had their worst week in 20 years. They didn’t so much stumble as walked off the cliff without a parachute.

Their wimpy, sycophantic, stupid and blind loyalty to Metiria Turei’s poorly judged and selfish benefit fraud campaign is only just being felt. She had to go as coleader, but the damage has already been done.

It’s a triple whammy. Lose your co-leader, lose two other MPs, lose your support.

It took too long for Turei to go. The Greens now risk not making it back at all.

And it all rests with co-leader James Shaw, who has been Turei’s biggest supporter.

Shaw has been damaged by this too – he’ll do well to get the Greens five or six per cent on election night. His inexperience shone out this week.

And that’s the National Party’s big hope. Claim and claim again that the Left is in tatters. Ironically, Labour has never been this united. So we now have 45 days to go. English says it won’t come down to personality. Whatever, Bill. It’s crucial. Ask John Key.

But Ardern’s chances of being PM are still likely to rest with a single man and single malt whiskey. Peters is the old hand on the whiskey front although it’s Ardern’s tipple of choice too.

Is he really willing to make a bolter, a 37-year old woman, the prime minister.

He’s old-school, a stickler for runs on the board and experience. What is he really thinking?

Here’s some free advice for Labour’s lot: Tell deputy Kelvin Davis to shut up with his scripted, cheesy one-liners and grab some ice from the freezer and invite Winnie to the third floor for a session.

Suddenly Ardern crashes in. The rest could be history. Winston is key.

Treat him well. No-one is likely to be crowned PM without his say so. More ice, Winston?

Labour is surging, but they will still need to rely on Winston if they are to govern.