Poll shows 70 per cent support for gay marriage
AUSTRALIA: The ‘‘yes’’ side on same-sex marriage is headed for a resounding victory with seven out of 10 definite voters backing a change to the law, a Fairfax/Ipsos poll has found.
Some 65 per cent of respondents rated themselves ‘‘certain’’ to take part in the voluntary postal survey, and of those 70 per cent said they would vote ‘‘yes’’.
The overall level of support for marriage equality, including those who were not certain they would vote, was also 70 per cent – a figure unchanged since July last year.
The results herald a promising start for same-sex marriage supporters as the Australian Bureau of Statistics starts distributing the first of 16 million survey forms on Tuesday.
But with only two-thirds of Australians inclined to participate, it means same-sex marriage could become law with just 45 per cent of Australians physically casting a ‘‘yes’’ vote. Respondents were asked how likely they were to participate in the survey, on a scale of one to 10. Only those who rated themselves a ‘‘10’’ were considered certain to vote.
Women were significantly more likely to vote, with 72 per cent saying they would definitely return their survey form, compared to 59 per cent of men.
The expected participation rate of about 65 per cent matches findings from other polls, including one conducted the previous week on behalf of The Equality Campaign.
Same-sex marriage advocates are concerned apathy and com- placency could see many supporters forget or ignore their survey forms, especially younger voters.
But the Fairfax-Ipsos poll found expected participation was roughly equal across age groups: 64 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds rated themselves certain to vote, and 68 per cent of those over 55.
Ipsos pollster Jessica Elgood said she was surprised by that result. ‘‘Generally when you’ve got non-compulsory voting you see the older cohort turning out to vote,’’ she said.
‘‘What’s quite unusual here is we’ve got equally high likely turnout amongst the younger vote ... which personally I think speaks to the salience of the issue for young people.’’
Among those who said they were certain to participate, all age groups had majority support for same-sex marriage, including 54 per cent of people over 55.
Support for marriage reform was also multi-partisan, including 52 per cent of Coalition voters, 86 per cent of Labor voters and 94 per cent of Greens.
The poll of 1400 voters was conducted between Wednesday and Saturday last week and had a 2.6 per cent margin of error.
On Monday, the Turnbull government and Labor moved closer to a deal to set ground rules for the unprecedented campaign, to be enshrined in law by the end of the week.
The parties are understood to be debating anti-vilification measures likely modelled on NSW laws. - Fairfax.