Labour’s Maori MPs could be biggest losers

Winston Peters feels like he’s between the Devil and the deep blue sea and he’s not the only one.

Labour’s Ma¯ori MPs are facing their own lose-lose situation, oddly brought about by a clean sweep of the Ma¯ori seats.

The seven MPs holding those seats could be the biggest losers whichever way NZ First chooses to go once the special votes are all counted.

Labour is on a high after bringing 13 Ma¯ori MPs into its caucus, and Tamati Coffey’s win over Te Ururoa Flavell in the Waiariki seat single-handedly ended the Ma¯ori Party’s political lifeline.

But if Labour can’t get a coalition deal across the line with Winston Peters and the Greens, they’re staring down the barrel of another three years in Opposition and by 2020 that will be 12 years of saying not enough has been done while at the same time having done nothing themselves.

On the other hand being in Government means you actually have to deliver, and as the Ma¯ori Party learnt the hard way, that’s not so easy and voters will punish you for it.

It’s true that the Ma¯ori Party’s biggest mistake was being seen to be tied to the National Party - it was impossible for them to distance themselves from that during the campaign and Labour jumped on every opportunity to remind Ma¯ori that a vote for the Ma¯ori Party was a vote for National.

The strategy worked for Labour and with the help of a new and energised leader in the form of Jacinda Ardern and the party’s first Ma¯ori deputy, Kelvin Davis, Ma¯ori voters swung in behind the new leadership and rewarded them with all seven seats.

But keeping hold of them is the tricky part and while Labour won the support, they’ve been out of power for so long they’re lost in the kaupapa Ma¯ori wilderness.

With Ma¯ori over-represented in every negative statistic, all the expectation in the world now rests on those Ma¯ori MPs’ shoulders.

But what can they actually achieve in Opposition? Frankly, very little, as the last nine years would show.

The alternative of course is that being in Opposition means there’s all care and no responsibility as nobody actually expects opposition MPs to be able to achieve anything.

The Ma¯ori Party was born out of a unique set of circumstances though. When Dame Tariana Turia crossed the floor over the Foreshore and Seabed legislation and formed the party Ma¯ori were incredibly disillusioned with Labour.

The Ma¯ori Party is in the throes of planning its comeback and there’s two roads for its 2020 campaign - the seven Ma¯ori MPs have sat in Opposition for more than a decade, or they’ve been in government and not enough has been done to deliver for Ma¯ori.

But will that be enough? No longer being in Parliament throws up all sorts of resourcing issues - in short, they have no money.

No money and no resources makes travelling the country and selling a message incredibly difficult. There’s no free air travel, there’s no public funding for staff, there’s nothing but a reliance on a really strong volunteer support base.

But you need more than the same faces and the hoardings and slogans of years gone past to inspire volunteers to come out in force.

Turia has come out of retirement to get the party back on its feet. In a recent interview she spoke of National having done well by Ma¯ori in government and that the issues that face Ma¯ori having been around much longer than the nine years they’ve been in charge.

While that’s true the statistics for Ma¯ori have also got much worse in the last decade.

Turia also knows the Ma¯ori Party membership wanted them to go with Labour - they wanted a change of government. Turia has history with Labour and is unlikely to ever forgive them and that’s the motivation behind her support for National.

How Turia’s comments that National have done well by Ma¯ori will sit with those affiliated with the party is yet to be seen but it’s clear Turia is not the answer to the party’s leadership problem - she’s the past and the party needs a future. The average age of Ma¯ori is 24 and as Fox put it - ‘‘our future is still coming’’.

Speculation is rife that renowned Kaitaia doctor and New Zealander of the Year, Lance O’Sullivan, is on the verge of stepping up to take over the reins.

O’Sullivan appeals to both Ma¯ori and non-Ma¯ori but the trick will be mastering - in the same way NZ First has - the role of looking like a kingmaker.

The messaging from the Ma¯ori Party during the election campaign was mixed at best and incoherent at its worst.

Its co-leaders Flavell and Fox were singing from different song sheets - Flavell happy to stay working with National while Fox pushed the desire for a Labour, Greens, NZ First government.

For many Ma¯ori the threat of another three years of the Ma¯ori Party being part of a National-led government was too much to stomach. Unsure whether the Ma¯ori Party would actually work with Labour they threw their support behind Ardern and Davis.

The Ma¯ori Party has one shot at getting back to Parliament - if it doesn’t pull it off in 2020 then chances are the party will be permanently written into the history books.

Positioning itself as a king or queen-maker party will be crucial to its survival and that will require a strong and coherent message under a new leader, even better, one with crossover appeal.

It will be an uphill climb for the Ma¯ori Party and how it tackles the next three years will be dictated by the decision Peters is yet to make.

The man who quite fancies the Ma¯ori seats being abolished for good could decide more than just which party has the right to govern.