The 10 ministers that really matter
OPINION: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has a massive, if not bloated, executive, there are 28 Ministers and 3 under-secretaries. Exactly half the Government is tied to the executive in some way. Why so big? It’s a juggling act.
The PMhas clearly felt pressured to reward not only NZ First and the Greens but also her own Ma¯ori MPs for their clean sweep of their seats, with appointments outside of Cabinet. It’s both strategically smart and expedient. It happens. Let’s make this clear: it’s an untried and vastly inexperienced Cabinet.
That’s not to say these people aren’t competent. They largely will be. The sky won’t fall in. The markets have barely whimpered. It’s a green Government if you look at the lack of experience. Only Labour’s David Parker, Nanaia Mahuta and NZ First’s Winston Peters and Shane Jones have ever been full Cabinet Ministers before.
Of the 31, only 10 Ministers really matter. They make the decisions. What they do will decide whether this Government is ultimately successful. Here’s my top 10:
1. Jacinda Ardern – Prime Minister Ardern sets the tone and the priorities. Empathy, warmth and her genuine connection with people are her strengths. She’s a classy communicator and is showing signs of being an unselfish, mature and collaborative MMPleader. She has a huge to-do list, and she’ll be judged on whether houses are built, jobs are created and if the economy is confident and strong. Taking on the child poverty reduction portfolio is brave but risky. Failure is not an option – reset an achievable target.
2. Grant Robertson – Finance Minister Robertson has the hardest job of all. He must juggle all the spending demands and look responsible, generous, prudent and visionary all at the same time. Good luck. Don’t forget the promised annual surpluses. Your free tickets to the All Black games as Sports Minister will seem like a small token of our appreciation. On the up side the economy is strong and that will help initially. If it dives Robertson will be tested and the goalposts will have to move.
3. Winston Peters – Foreign Minister He’ll be overseas a lot pressing the flesh, having a drink and flying our flag. When he’s home he’ll be at the races or recovering. His NZ First team is way more experienced than previous years. His relationship with the PM is vital. Trust and communication is key. I predict it will work. So far so good.
4. Phil Twyford – Housing and Transport Twyford needs a big chequebook to sit inside his big-boy cabinet pants. If that happens he could make a real difference. Twyford must oversee the building of 16-20,000 affordable homes in the first term. National built just 98 over three and a half years. Twyford is under pressure. He must get creative and be handson. Hands off has failed. He also needs to plan for buses, bus lanes, trains and highways to where people are building their homes. And we need to go up. New modern apartments. The visionless twits who built four lane highways and ignored all other modes of transport belong as dinosaur tucker. Twyford needs early success, time for jaw-boning is over.
5. David Parker – AttorneyGeneral, Economic- Development and Trade Parker is Labour’s chief policy wonk. He has a big workload and he’ll have to be careful not to get bogged down in the mindless detail when explaining complex issues to voters. Parker will be leaned on in Cabinet as the senior voice.
6. Chris Hipkins – Education, State Services, Leader of the House Chippie knows the education sector and where the bodies are buried. He won’t rock the union boat. But the tsunami is coming. Teachers want more pay, they’re ditching Auckland and what about charter schools? He’ll also roll out free tertiary education for those enrolling next year. Chippie is also running the house and overseeing ministerial spending. Hipkins will barely be seen standing let alone being the family man. His work load is massive. Get used to Skype and lack of sleep.
7. David Clark – Health Labour is promising more money, but money alone won’t solve a mess. Clark is a smart realist and he’ll do his homework. Some DHBs are chronically underfunded and mental health looks broken. Clark will be tested but should be up to it. Mental health must be audited ASAP. Advice: don’t close emergency departments with ‘sorry full’ signs and don’t send people home at midnight.
8. Andrew Little – Justice and Treaty Negotiations Minister, Pike River Has union and real world negotiating experience and I predict he’ll prove to be a largely competent minister. If he can settle the last remaining treaty claims he’ll be a hero, but if he gets the families into the Pike River Drift he’ll be regarded as Superman Andy for life.
9. Shane Jones – Regional Development and Forestry Officially Jones is now the $1b man. He’s been given $1b a year to literally put his money where his massive vocabulary is. So, can he transform the regions? Can he change the lives of young unemployed youth – many being young Ma¯ori, or will he waste this chance of a lifetime? Do this well and the party is his. Do it badly and Jonesy might be packing up the Wellington baubles for the final time. This forestry planting could transform lives. Or not. Red flag risk too with Jones. Expect anything.
10. James Shaw – Climate Change This is the PM’s nuclear moment of our time. It’s a crucial job and given it’s in the hands of the Green’s sole leader, failure can’t be contemplated. Expect firm action to take place. But also watch for flashpoints too. If Shaw and Peters clash, Ardern’s empathy and patience will be tested. Watch this space. I think Shaw will prove entirely competent and then some.
So it’s certainly an ambitious Government programme. It’s way too early to say if it’s transformational. That will take time if it ever happens at all. But we must not stand in their way.
Transformational to me means our lives are genuinely transformed. Poverty would be eradicated, education free and sophisticated, there would be decent paying jobs, affordable homes and clean rivers.
Keeping spending and borrowing under control will be a significant challenge as will the wage demands coming from Labour’s traditional support base, like teachers and public servants.
This incoming crowd turned Government has had a lot to say about what’s wrong with NZ. Now we must give them the space to prove they can improve things.
Good luck. Don’t squander this.