Region’s population set to soar
The population of the Nelson-Tasman region is tipped to grow by between 11,000 and 25,000 residents to reach as high 130,000 by 2043, requiring thousands of new homes.
In their second joint quarterly monitoring report on housing and business market activity, the Tasman district and Nelson city councils outline projected demand for 7300 dwellings between 2018 and 2043 in the ‘‘main urban area’’, which includes most of Nelson city, Richmond and Hope.
Tasman District Council’s growth demand and supply model assumes high series projections for Richmond and Hope during the first 10 years, followed by medium projections thereafter.
Based on that assumption, RichmondHope is tipped to grow by 2000 people with a requirement for 1600 additional homes between 2018 and 2043. Of the 1600 extra dwellings, 900 are expected in the first 10 years.
The Nelson City Council is also planning for growth under high series projections for the first 10 years and medium projections thereafter. That translates into an expected increase of almost 8800 people between 2018 and 2043, with demand for another 5700 homes over that time.
Tasman mayor Richard Kempthorne said it was important to get the planning right.
‘‘The reality is that if we don’t provide for enough growth, we’re going to push our house prices up,’’ Kempthorne said.
Information from a Massey University affordability index in June shows the Nelson-Tasman-Marlborough cluster was the third least affordable region in the country for housing, behind Central Otago Lakes and Auckland.
The median sale price for the year ended June 2017 was $457,777 in Nelson and $519,753 in Tasman district, according to the report. Across the NelsonTasman region, prices increased 13 per cent during the year.
‘‘The monitoring report shows that housing demand across both Nelson and Tasman is growing at a faster rate than supply,’’ say TDC staff. ‘‘House prices and rents continue to increase and affordability is relatively poor.’’
Meanwhile, Kempthorne said the Tasman council may consider getting its own population projections after the September 2017 update from Statistics New Zealand kept the Nelson-Tasman main urban area as a ‘‘medium growth’’ location.
Statistics NZ concluded the population growth forecast between 2013 and 2023 was 9.95 per cent – just shy of the 10 per cent threshold defining ‘‘high growth’’.
‘‘I think, it’s absolutely ridiculous,’’ Kempthorne said. ‘‘It’s extremely disappointing. I think, we should be in the high-growth [category], over 10 per cent.’’
Councils in or part of ‘‘high-growth urban areas’’ were able to apply for the Government’s $1 billion Housing Infrastructure Fund to advance infrastructure projects.