Global warming

A recent report predicted three degrees of global warming above pre-industrial levels.

The report was like a weather forecast, implying that 3° is somehow acceptable. It’s not, though: far from it.

A new model of the global climate by NZ engineer Jeff Foley confirms the IPCC (world’s climate scientists) projections, but also shows that warming of 2.7° and above produces a state of thermal runaway. This is a condition wellknown to electrical engineers, in which a poorly-designed circuit takes too much current and overheats, resulting in even more current, and destruction of the circuit component.

In Foley’s recent Auckland presentation, it was disturbing to see this familiar graph applied to the climate of the planet. The implication is that once we reach 2.7°, we are on an irreversible trend, leading ultimately to Venuslike conditions.

A link to Foley’s results is on the Engineers for Social Responsibility website www.esr.org.nz under Members’ Papers.

While the margins are perilously slim, we do still have time to deal with this problem.

We can’t afford to be complacent, though.

We all have a responsibility to reduce carbon emissions, and support our governments in their efforts to deal with this enormous issue.