Peak cow - we may have arrived

New Zealand may have struck ‘‘peak cow’’ if the latest statistics showing a fall in dairy cattle numbers of 100,000 over the last year are an accurate judge.

Statistics NZ figures show the number of dairy cattle has dipped by 2 per cent, from 6.6 million in June last year to 6.5 million this year.

But there was not one simple factor for the decline from a height of 6.7 million in 2014, Federated Farmers dairy group chairman Chris Lewis said.

Lewis said chief among the reasons for the fall were low dairy prices since 2015. In 2014, farmers received a record $8.40 per kilogram of milksolids before prices plunged to $3.90.

Other factors included stricter environmental rules, more production per cow and stiffer competition for dairy land.

‘‘It’s not rocket science. With incomes tight, farmers have been optimising their stocking rates to encourage more production per cow. There’s no more dairy conversions I know of and housing and horticulture are taking over dairy land,’’ Lewis said.

Agricultural production statistics manager Stuart Pitts said from 2012, dairy cattle numbers had been relatively unchanged, after increasing over 20 per cent or 1.2 million between 2007 and 2012.

But while the dairy cattle population has fallen, beef cattle numbers increased for the first time in over 10 years, from 3.5 million last year to 3.6 million this year. Beef prices are comfortably above what they were this time a year ago.

Last month DairyNZ figures showed fewer cows were producing more milk. The industry good body counts milking cows, as opposed to Statistics NZ which totals up dairy cattle. These include replacement stock such as calves and heifers that have not begun milking yet.

According to DairyNZ there are now 4.86 million milking cows – the lowest number since 2012. Last year the average dairy cow produced 4259 litres of milk compared with 4185l the year before.

Milking cow numbers fell from 4.99 to 4.86 million between 2016 and this year, while herd numbers have also dropped by 170 to 11,748 (from 11,918). The average herd size is now 414, also a decline from 419 the year before.

From about 2005 onwards the amount of land converted to dairy was 35,000 hectares a year, but since 2015 dairy has lost 23,000ha a year.