The first 100 days - the recap

extra capacity. couldn’t cope with the EVdemand in bad weather which means – you guessed it – nuclear power, in Auckland anyway.

Tasman Mayor, Richard Kempthorne also took the time to swing by with words of encouragment, caring and support.

I commend you all. Take a bow, well done everybody...and many thanks, you are all heroes. So that just happened. Jacinda Ardern has ticked off her first 100 days in office and you could almost smell the relief behind the press release marking the occasion. ‘‘We did that!,’’ it read. It should have said, ‘‘I did that’’. The 100-day milestone might be an artificial one, but it has come to represent something more than the usual box-ticking exercise for Labour.

Ardern’s popularity and charisma were enough to carry her Government through its first 100 days in power while her ministers and minor party allies found their feet.

But the rest were going to need to catch up fast if Labour was to end the first 100 days looking and sounding more like a government than the cobbled-together arrangement of unusual bedfellows that it began as.

After a rocky start, they have done it. The powerhouses are Finance Minister Grant Robertson, minister of everything that moves David Parker, and – yes – Winston Peters, who came back from his summer break looking less curmudgeonly and more statesmanlike.

But more of Ardern’s ministers are starting to look more convincing after getting some momentum in their portfolios, though some have not yet learned the skill of avoiding being drowned in paperwork by their officials.

More significantly, the Government has done what it said it was going to do in its first 100 days – defying its critics and the gloomy predictions that such an unlikely and unwieldy-looking government could never work.

It’s ticked off its $2 billion families package, the cornerstone of Ardern’s pledge to tackle child poverty; interest-free tertiary study is in the bank; the first round of worker/union friendly industrial relation reforms is under way and the Government has set up a range of inquiries and working groups.

Ardern marked herself about a 7 for her first 100 days. But she was being typically hard on herself. She has continued to surprise on the upside, and not just over the big baby news. It took pragmatism, and steel, to carry the disparate forces of her Government through its first 100 days. She probably deserves a 9.

But let’s not forget this is not just Ardern’s first 100 days. It’s National’s first 100 days in Opposition for the first time in a very long while and NZ First and the Greens’ first 100 days learning what it’s like to live under the shadow of Jacinda.

So that’s the first 100 days. What now? Labour Ardern has stamped her mark on the country in the same manner as John Key and Helen Clark. But success by one measure still eludes her. Labour under Clark and National under Key both experienced a long streak of popularity in the polls, well ahead of their opponents. It’s not just about symbolism – it is an assertion of power.

The latest Newshub poll shows Labour is more popular than it has been in years, but National is still ahead.

Labour can of course win the next election with fewer votes than National, just as it did this one. But there’s a law of diminishing returns when it comes to picking off votes from NZ First and the Greens.

The Newshub poll showed National’s votes are stubbornly loyal. Even if some of them are sitting on the fence at the moment, Ardern’s Government has done nothing to talk them off it. Labour will have to work harder at it than many of its predecessors, because many of those voters are still angry at the manner of Labour’s win.

There are two key areas of risk and opportunity for Ardern.

There are always going to be factors beyond her control, like natural disasters, ministerial scandal, a global financial crash – but it’s how she manages them that could make or break her Government. Key’s surefooted handling of a succession of disasters is what made his government.

The other risk? Managing expectations.

Labour activists, sector groups, the unions – all have expectations of Labour delivering more. The unveiling of Ardern’s child poverty reduction targets should be a stark warning to them of the limits to what can be done this term. The bulk of those targets will be met by what Labour has already unveiled – its big $2 billion families package – and Ardern has already talked down the prospect of another package on that scale. National At 44 per cent in the polls and with National still ahead of Labour, Bill English can rightly feel aggrieved that there are leadership rumblings so soon after he ran such a strong election campaign.

But reality is finally setting in for National’s MPs that despite a shaky start, this Government is not going to fall apart any time soon and return them to the Treasury benches.

National knows it won’t win the next election looking like a retread of the previous government so a leadership change at some point this time seems inevitable, though not now. English stayed on after the election as much as anything to provide continuity till the next generation sorted itself out.

But his deputy, Paula Bennett, and finance spokesman Steven Joyce might be forced out sooner to satisfy the mood for bloodletting over National’s failure to see the train wreck with NZ First coming.

So if not Bill who? The jostling is well under way – Judith Collins, Amy Adams, Nikki Kaye, Simon Bridges, Todd Mueller are all being touted as possibles. NZ First The first poll since Ardern’s baby news shows NZ First sinking without a trace. Peters will take that with a grain of salt. His party has a habit of disappearing beneath the waves between elections but his star power on the campaign trail usually – though not always – pulls them back.

NZ First’s best chance of survival is throwing the cheque book around in regional New Zealand and talking a big game on law and order to try and prise some votes off National. ACT How long before National decides that gifting ACT the Epsom seat is not worth the bother?

ACT leader David Seymour is banking everything on his euthanasia crusade lifting his and the party’s profile but it also pits him against some of National’s more conservative elements, both in the National caucus, and in Seymour’s Epsom seat.