Yes. Think pink and England’s shaky travels

New Zealand to win the first cricket test against England. You heard it here first. It’s easy to shut your eyes tight, grasp the silver fern on your chest, wave the flag and bellow this from the rooftops with no apparent rhyme or reason. A 100-day test cricket drought, since the Black Caps beat West Indies in Hamilton, can lead to over-excitement and rash predictions.

There are, in fact, solid reasons why the Black Caps can, and will, chalk up victory in the country’s first pink-ball, floodlit test at Auckland’s Eden Park starting next Thursday.

Forget what went on in the ODIs, when England were clearly the better side and the flaky Black Caps took it to a decider thanks to Ross Taylor’s phenomenal batting with support acts from Tom Latham and Mitchell Santner.

This is test cricket with a pink ball which can misbehave under lights and level the playing field, reducing seemingly competent batting lineups to clueless wrecks. Exhibit A: the first pink-ball test in Adelaide in November 2015 when Tim Southee and Trent Boult swung New Zealand within three wickets of victory over Australia. That hot spot smudge on Nathan Lyon’s bat could have come from anywhere, too.

The next year in Brisbane, Pakistan were skittled for 142 by Australia with the pinky, then got within 40 runs of their monster target of 490 in a remarkable fourth innings chase. In the most recent, in Adelaide in December, England began day five on 176-4 chasing 354 and still in the hunt before they folded against a Josh Hazlewood-led pace barrage. That moves us on to England in test cricket. Their last overseas test victory was 17 months ago in Chittagong in October, 2016. Since then, England played 11 away tests and lost nine. Admittedly that included two 4-0 defeats in India and Australia, the two toughest touring destinations, but you get the picture. Winning away tests remains as tough as ever, amid packed schedules and minimal warmup time. England are amid their longest tour since they stopped travelling by boat, with some like Joe Root on the road for most of that time, since October. Conversely the test specialists are arriving cold (literally) from no cricket since January.

Jason Roy, Alex Hales and Eoin Morgan were replaced by Alastair Cook, Mark Stoneman and James Vince. The latter two won’t cause New Zealand’s bowlers sleepless nights on their Australian form. Cook is world-class but Boult has dislodged him five times in seven tests, his equal most-dismissed batsman alongside Stuart Broad.

Therein lies New Zealand’s key man, outside the batting bankers Taylor and Kane Williamson. Boult’s outswing to England’s left-handers (seven of them in their likely XI) could be the decisive factor if the hosts can get enough runs and the pink ball hoops about. New Zealand need to see off Jimmy Anderson and Broad, too, but the suspicion is that pair will need time to hit their straps off a break.

Last time in New Zealand the sides played out a thrilling 0-0 draw that went to the wire at Eden Park with the hosts one wicket away in 2013. Two years later it was 1-1 in England when the Black Caps bounced back at Headingley.

This will be close, again. But there’s enough in the home team’s favour to boldly predict 1-0 heading to Christchurch, where England will be a lot tougher to beat with the red ball and a run under their belts.