There will never be a ‘Eurabia’ within Europe

party’s vote shrink dramatically in last September’s election, probably because she let a million refugees into Germany in 2016. No good deed goes unpunished.

But the Iraq war is now over, and the Syrian war is staggering to an end. The Afghan war may drag on for years, but the refugee pressure on Europe is already declining. Twenty or 30 years from now, when global warming has destroyed agriculture in much of the Middle East and North Africa, there will be another, much bigger wave of refugees, but at that point Europe will certainly slam the door shut. There will never be a ‘‘Eurabia’’.

There are some Western European countries – the United Kingdom, France, Germany Sweden and Belgium – where the Muslim population is around the 10 per cent level now, and could increase to as much as 18 or 19 per cent by 2050 if the ‘‘high’’ estimate of refugee intake applies. One country, Sweden, could go even higher, ending up 30 per cent Muslim by 2050 on the ‘‘high’’ assumption.

But these predictions may be underestimating the speed at which Muslim birthrates fall to match those of their non-Muslim neighbours. (European Muslim women now have an average of 2.6 children, whereas non-Muslim women have 1.6.) And in any case, what is so bad about having a higher proportion of Muslims in your population?

The whole panic is built on the assumption that Muslim immigrants are fundamentally less likely than Buddhist, Hindu, Christian or Sikh immigrants to give their loyalty to their new country, less able and willing to adopt its values and its ways. Why? Because Islam is an all-embracing way of life that is very resistant to change.

Many Muslims think the beliefs and behaviours they inherited are indeed uniquely resistant to change, but there is no evidence this is true. For example, around a quarter of Americans who were raised as Muslims have left the faith, and more than half of those people no longer identify with any faith. Almost exactly the same figures apply to Americans who were raised Christian.

Assimilation operates more quickly where immigrant communities are small and relatively new.

The word ‘‘assimilation’’ is unpopular in many quarters, as it is held to imply being absorbed into a dominant and somehow superior culture. ‘‘Integration’’ is to be preferred, as it leaves the original cultures intact while integrating the immigrants into a splendidly diverse whole. In reality, the two processes operate together, integration more quickly and assimilation more slowly.

There is nothing to be feared here: the national identity and values are safe.

Gwynne Dyer’s new book, Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work), is published this month by Scribe.