Aplace they’re cheering Trump’s nuke deal withdrawal: the Gulf States
US President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran has been greeted warmly in Arab capitals, where tensions with Tehran form the backdrop of proxy wars raging in Syria and Yemen.
In Arab capitals, especially in the Gulf, Trump’s move was greeted with enthusiasm by political leaders, where the tussle with Iran has dominated the region in recent years.
‘‘Iran today, after the deal, is one bit weaker than Iran during the deal,’’ said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor who serves as an advisor to powerful Emirati ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed.
While many of the US’ western allies moved to salvage the nuclear deal, Donald Trump’s withdrawal has been welcomed in some parts of the Middle East.
‘‘It is going to get weaker and weaker by the day . . . The net result of yesterday’s withdrawal is going to make Iran and its allies weaker by imposing the sanctions financially and politically’’.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which includes European countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom, lifted international economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for limiting its uranium enrichment program and reactors needed to produce a nuclear bomb.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, who have maintained a year long blockade on natural gas-rich Qatar for drawing closer to Iran’s sphere of influence, all released statements hailing Trump’s unilateral decision.
The Gulf states, led most prominently by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been mired in proxy wars such as Yemen, where since 2015 the conflict has claimed more than 10,000 lives and forced the state to the brink of famine.
‘‘In this zero[-sum] game of regional power . . . it’s a good announcement,’’ Abdulla said. ‘‘It’s going to weaken Iran, the [Yemeni rebels, the] Houthis, [the Shiite movement] Hezbollah and by default that’s good for the UAE, that’s good for Saudi Arabia and that’s good regional stability – period.’’
The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, who took over Yemen’s capital in September 2014, fired two ballistic missiles overnight into Saudi Arabia, not for the first time, stoking fears that this could signal an uptick in an already ravaging war.
However, Maysaa Al Deen, a Bahrain-based Yemeni political analyst, is adamant that Iran through its proxies cannot be dragged into a new phase of fighting.
‘‘Iran has gotten credit for a war that it hasn’t really been involved in except giving logistical support to the rebels. The main battlegrounds . . . Iran does not want to lose are Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and for Saudi Arabia winning in Yemen would be a boon but that’s unlikely’’, she told Fairfax Media.
Not all Gulf countries are cheering though.
Oman, traditionally a neutral peacemaker and stable actor leveraging its role as a mediator between Tehran and Riyadh under the long-time Sultan Qaboos has been hesitant about Trump’s move.
‘‘I don’t foresee any major economic impact after the sanctions being reinstated but the political impact will be felt if Trump tries to escalate a war with Tehran which would be a major challenge’’, said an Omani political analyst with government links who preferred to remain anonymous for fear of talking explicitly about the withdrawal to international media.
‘‘Oman signalled that it would continue mediation, starting a fresh new round of talks between Tehran and Washington with the objective of finding a new way forward’’, the analyst added.
As Saudi Arabia continues to flex its regional muscles under the rising star of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, other Arab neighbours such as Egypt, which are struggling with their own messy political transitions, appear content to fall in line with its growing political ambitions – even if that means keeping Iran at arm’s length.
– Fairfax