China and Russia bogeymen in new strategy
The Government is placing growing emphasis on the erosion of the global rulesbased order, and has singled out threats posed by China and Russia in its new defence strategy.
The decision by the rising superpowers not to abide by the international rules-based order, on which New Zealand places high importance, has caused increased anxiety around the world in recent years. As China’s influence in New Zealand’s sphere of the world grows, the coalition Government has pushed back diplomatically, with comments about ‘‘non-traditional players’’, and the importance of an increased presence in the Pacific.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern have largely avoided singling out China by name, in contrast with the approach taken by their counterparts in Canberra and Washington DC.
But Defence Minister Ron Mark’s rebooted strategic defence policy statement, released yesterday, has gone further and explicitly states the threat China and Russia pose to the international community. The statement is more bold and frank in terms of the Government’s foreign policy position, and its singling out of countries, than anything a New Zealand government has released in recent years.
The Government has used the statement – which was signed off by all relevant ministers and departments, including foreign affairs – to raise awareness of heightened global threats and challenges. Explicitly pointing out global strategic threats, including the rise of China, Russian interference, climate change, cyber security, contested geographical areas and the risks and opportunities of space, seems to be a way for Mark to get the Government, and the public, onside for his plans to upgrade military capabilities. Without outlining the growing challenges in New Zealand’s area of responsibility, and the rest of the world, Mark would be unlikely to get the needed backing to spend billions on new planes, frigates, and communications technology.
Mark has painted this as an attempt to continue the debate and clarify New Zealand’s intention to retain an independent foreign policy, not as a first move towards shutting China out.
The Government is ‘‘clear-eyed’’ when it comes to the forces interrupting the rules-based order, he says. And that includes China.
China’s reaction to the statement is not yet known but Mark passed on the policy strategy ahead of its public release. He maintains this stronger, more frank stance on China’s movements won’t come as a surprise to the country, following lengthy one-on-one discussions with his Chinese counterpart in Singapore earlier in the year.
‘‘There are some things that are not conducive to peace and stability that raise opportunities for miscalculations that are unhelpful ... I would probably argue that if we weren’t open and frank in these conversations in this strategic policy we might be asked: why not?
‘‘There’s a price for having independence of mind, there’s a responsibility for being open and frank. But the key is to always keep the doors open and maintain respectful dialogue with people and help people understand your perspective, and for you to understand their perspective.’’
China respects New Zealand’s ‘‘forthrightness’’ and frank conversations – ‘‘that’s what friends do’’, he says. ‘‘We respect each other more by virtue of the fact we have an open conversation, as opposed to talking about things behind each others’ backs.’’
But this forthrightness Mark is referring to has only now come out from behind closed doors as part of this new policy statement.
Out with the old
The policy, which replaced the former government’s 2016 white paper, focused on three areas: community (supporting New Zealand’s community and environmental wellbeing and resilience); nation (keeping New Zealand safe and secure); and world (maintaining the international rules-based order).
Mark said the policy updated New Zealand’s defence strategy and policy to reflect the coalition Government’s foreign policy and national security priorities.
It also comes ahead of the review of New Zealand’s defence capability plan, which is due to be released later this year.
‘‘There have been significant developments in the global strategic environment since the Defence policy settings were last reviewed in 2016’s White Paper … We live in turbulent times, the world is changing and there has been a re-emergence of great power competition,’’ he said. ‘‘In the context of competition among powers, complex transnational threats will disrupt New Zealand’s neighbourhood in ways not previously seen,’’ according to the defence strategy.
China
While China is deeply integrated into the rules-based order with its investment in institutions, increased global trade, peacekeeping, and counter-piracy efforts, this has not led to China adopting governance and values aligned with those of New Zealand, the defence force statement says.
‘‘Both domestically and as a basis for international engagement, China holds views on human rights and freedom of information that stand in contrast to those that prevail in New Zealand.
‘‘China has set an alternative model of development – a liberalising economy in the absence of liberal democracy – challenging conventional wisdom in the West that the two go hand-in-hand,’’ the strategy statement said.
The statement outlines areas of international concern in terms of China’s ‘‘confident assertion’’ of its interests, its expansion through the Belt and Road global infrastructure initiative, its military modernisation and expansion, and its refusal to engage with an international tribunal ruling on the status of sovereignty claims in disputed areas of maritime Asia.
None of these concerns were new – though they have grown in recent years – but unlike Australia, with its megaphone diplomacy, New Zealand has carefully managed the extent to which it singled out its now top trading partner, and called it out on its expansion strategy.
The geographic spread
The policy strategy also looked at complex and difficult regions, including the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Europe as the continent dealt with the implications of Brexit, refugee migration, populism and protectionism, as well as influence and coercion from outside powers, including ‘‘a formidable Russian threat’’.
It also singled out Antarctica and the Pacific as areas New Zealand needed to continue to focus on in maintaining order, peace, influence and stability.
Peters has talked extensively about his Pacific reset – New Zealand’s renewed focus on the Pacific – to counter the growing influence of ‘‘non-traditional’’ players.
Mark has done away with the euphemism in his strategy statement, saying ‘‘China is enhancing its influence in the region, including through development assistance and support for economic engagement’’. He also singled out Antarctica as an area of increased interest for foreign states, and the possibility of overcrowding, pressure on natural resources, and the possibility of countries exploiting the ambiguity of the treaty system to carry out a range of military and other security-related activities.
Russia
Following a recent spate of hacks, and chemical weapons attacks linked to Russia, it was no surprise the former Soviet power also featured in the new strategy policy.
The policy noted Russia’s strategy of discrediting Western systems, and its aim to restore claimed historical levels of influence, similar to China’s.