Ageing concern
The number of older people in Tasman district is tipped to almost double over the next 20 years – the biggest increase in New Zealand as a proportion of its total population.
A new report on the district’s ageing population reveals that the number of residents aged 65 and over is projected to climb from 11,100 in 2018 to 20,500 by 2038.
As a proportion of the total population, this age group will jump from 22 per cent to 36 per cent, making Tasman’s population the second-oldest in the country. In 2017, it was 16th.
By 2038, a whopping 20 per cent of the population – 11,500 residents – are expected to be aged 75 and over.
The report, due to be presented today to the Nelson Tasman Positive Ageing Forum, uses population estimates from Tasman District Council’s growth model, which are based on a combination of Statistics New Zealand medium and high projections for different parts of the district.
It will be used to help the council develop an ‘‘age-friendly policy’’ and ensure its infrastructure and planning rules are suitable for this growing cohort of residents.
First-term councillor Dana Wensley, who is on a steering group to drive that age-friendly policy, called the report a ‘‘wonderful starting point’’.
‘‘One of my main election concerns has now been embraced by
council,’’ she said. ‘‘I think it’s fantastic.’’
Tasman’s total population is expected to grow by 4400 over the next 10 years to reach 55,700. After 2028, it is projected to keep growing but at a slower rate, and is tipped to plateau after 2038 at about 57,200.
The district’s ageing population is expected to increase the number of one- and two-person households. While 82 per cent of older people now own or partly own their home, that rate has been declining and ‘‘future
generations of older people are more likely to be renting’’, the report says.
According to the 2013 Census, three-quarters of the district’s older people had a personal annual income of less than $30,000.
‘‘The increasing age of the population is likely to have an impact on residents’ ability to pay for services and rating increases,’’ the report says.
Council senior policy adviser Brylee Wayman last week presented the report to the TDC community development committee.
‘‘We’re expecting increased demand for smaller housing, close to services, that’s accessible and warm,’’ Wayman said.
Changes in transportation, needs along with changes in the demand for recreation facilities and activities, were also anticipated.
‘‘There’s also opportunities coming from the growth in this age group,’’ Wayman said.
‘‘Increasing numbers are working past the age of 65, and that may address [a] potential labour market shortage, an increased number of volunteers and business opportunities to meet those changing demographic patterns.’’
In 2013, a total of 22 per cent of older Tasman district residents
‘‘The increasing age of the population is likely to have an impact on residents’ ability to pay for services and rating increases.’’
Report to Nelson Tasman Positive Ageing Forum
were still in employment, with half working fulltime. That rate was similar to the national average of 21 per cent but well above the rates in Canada (13 per cent), Australia (12 per cent) and Britain (10 per cent).
Wensley said she was concerned that some older people might be continuing their employment ‘‘because they have to pay the higher rates that we’ve got in the Tasman area’’.
However, Cr Sue Brown said New Zealanders were ‘‘great small business owners’’, so there was a different employment dynamic. ‘‘A lot of us are selfemployed.’’
After the meeting, Wensley said the plan was to gather ideas and feedback for the age-friendly policy by August 10 from internal and external ‘‘stakeholders’’, including the positive ageing forum, iwi, Accessibility for All (A4A) forum, Motueka and Golden Bay community boards, the district health board, the primary health organisation, Age Concern, AgeConnect partners, the Nelson Regional Development Agency, and Nelson City Council.
Wensley said she was also keen to widen the scope for feedback, and planned to develop a focus group that might include input from the youth sector and the ‘‘sandwich’’ generation – people with kids in school and elderly parents ‘‘who were juggling everything’’.
‘‘Unpaid carers, people who do everything for their families,’’ she said. ‘‘I want to make sure their voices are heard.’’
Anyone keen to participate can email dana.wensley@ tasman.govt.nz.