Is Blenheim the next Kaikōura?
Kaiko¯ura was cut off after the 2016 earthquake and the same thing could happen to Blenheim in a big shake,
Under Marlborough, faultlines run through the earth like spider webs.
Those faultlines have twice jolted houses and livelihoods in major quakes since 2013, and GNS says there is a 30 per cent chance of another large quake in the next 10 years.
But is the area prepared for the next big quake? Could the region be isolated the way Kaiko¯ ura was in 2016?
Definitely, says the region’s Civil Defence team. ‘‘Think about it – there’s only a few highways and a ferry terminal,’’ emergency management officer Gary Spence says.
Spence and the Civil Defence team are planning for all the ‘‘what-ifs’’ – being isolated like
Kaiko¯ ura is one of the more serious ‘‘what-ifs’’.
If the highways fail, Port Marlborough and Marlborough Airport will be the region’s lifelines, bringing in food, water and supplies, and helping people leave.
Civil Defence welfare manager Catherine Coates says an earthquake in the summer means thousands of tourists will be desperate to leave the region.
‘‘If it’s the peak of summer, there’s thousands of tourists in town on cruise ships, and the [Marlborough] Sounds are full of people in baches,’’ Coates says.
‘‘It’s hard to get people to plan for disaster when they’re on holiday. The Kaiko¯ ura earthquake is the best example of that ... we could be stuck somewhere for a week without help.’’
Residents could be on their own for up to a week while power lines and roads are repaired.
STUCK FOR A WEEK
Marlborough emergency services manager Brian Paton says ‘‘cash becomes king’’ after an earthquake.
Supermarkets have backup generators to run chillers and freezers until the food runs out. But there’s no guarantee eftpos machines will be working.
Paton encourages people to keep cash in their emergency supplies along with food and water, battery-powered torches and radio, and a first aid kit.
‘‘Think about what you’ll need for up to a week, and have it in your house ready to go,’’ Coates says.
A getaway bag is also recommended in case of evacuation.
Blenheim couple Erin and Ken Giles feel prepared and stocked up on supplies after the Kaiko¯ ura quake.
‘‘Seeing that made the whole thing very real and very scary,’’ Erin says.
‘‘So we’ve got the basics; water bottles, a radio, stuff like that. We’ve got it packed away with our camping gear.’’
Her neighbour Midge Toia says she checks her emergency supplies every Christmas.
‘‘You can review and add to it. I’ve got knitting needles in there now, and a couple balls of wool to keep me occupied.’’
She checks the best-before dates on canned peas, beans and fish, and replaces bottled water. Family members are usually impressed and borrow ideas, she says. ‘‘I’ve got a busybody brother in his 70s, and he likes to know where everybody is. He lives in Auckland. So if there’s an earthquake we just call him and he knows how everyone is.’’
COMMUNICATION
It’s human nature to call loved ones after a disaster, but cellphone networks become overloaded very fast.
‘‘We used to tell people landlines were the most reliable method of communication in an emergency,’’
Paton says.
But most new landline phones use fibre instead of copper cables, so they need electricity to work. If the power goes off, so do the phones.
‘‘Instead go to social media to let people know you’re OK, or arrange to text just one person who will let everyone else know,’’ Paton says.
Coates says families should plan where to meet in case their phones do not work.
‘‘We always need to answer the what-ifs. What if I’m at work? Who will pick up my kids from school, how will I get home? Have I got an old pair of sneakers under my desk so I can get home safely?’’
Brian FM will broadcast emergency messages from Civil Defence, so having a batterypowered radio at home is important.
Civil Defence will not knock on your door to check on you, Paton says.
‘‘Your first responder is actually your neighbour. That’s what everyone discovered in the last earthquake. People went out on the road and went, ‘are you OK?’’’
Neighbours could even split emergency kit responsibilities, Coates says.
‘‘Some preparation is better than none.’’
ROADS AND FUEL
Driving out of the region could be difficult or impossible if the roads are damaged. Marlborough Roads journey manager Steve Murrin and his team have 369 bridges to check after a quake. ‘‘We also check for slips and landslides.
‘‘We’re able to shift landslides
relatively quickly,’’ Murrin says.
Civil Defence’s Paton says bridges are ‘‘crucial’’ after a major quake so food and fuel can be delivered.
Supermarkets can only feed the region for about four days before the shelves are bare, Spence says.
The region’s petrol comes by road from Nelson, and the stations only store a few days’ worth.
And they can only provide fuel if they have electricity, and if someone can operate the computerised system.
‘‘We can get Marlborough Lines in there to fix powerlines, or a fuse down the road to get the petrol station going, but they would have to check every house in the suburban area first,’’ Spence says.
POWER
Marlborough Lines is on a constant mission to bolster powerlines against the quake risk.
Network operations manager Warner Nichol says the team learnt a lot from the 2016 quakes, where about 8500 households were left in the dark.
They now have a backup office, and are moving a major substation in Renwick to a new site, further away from where a faultline crosses the region, Nichol says.
‘‘We’re also working on improving the radio network. Marlborough is reasonably challenging because of the hills, and it can be hard to get coverage behind the hills.’’
Many powerlines had ‘‘diverse paths’’, so if one line is taken out, the team can switch on another line without even visiting the site.
They also expect to do repairs where roads are impassable, Nichols says.
‘‘So we rely heavily on helicopters and we have some good relationships with helicopter owners. There was quite a demand for helicopters in the Kaiko¯ ura quake.’’
AIRPORTS AND HELICOPTERS
Marlborough has a good supply of helicopters in the region, but only about a day’s worth of fuel stored.
‘‘But they will need to be checked for damage in their hangars. You can’t assume in a major event all those helicopters will be available,’’ Coates says.
Marlborough will likely be supporting worst-hit regions after a quake, so it’s likely the helicopters will be put to work elsewhere, Spence says.
Marlborough Airport and the air force base will also provide support, as well as Omaka Aerodrome and Koromiko airfield.
But Marlborough Airport chief executive Dean Heiford says a large quake could destroy the runways.
‘‘If the airport is broken up and unusable, we would have to get engineers in to assess whether we can recover the airport,’’ Heiford says.
‘‘The first thing would be to get the grass runway flat and open, but that still limits the type of aircraft that can come in.’’
The airport has tents and mobile buildings staff can work from outside, and has bought a powerful new backup generator.
‘‘The hospital has a helipad. And Omaka [Aerodrome] has grass runways. So there are some alternatives,’’ Heiford says.
‘‘The other issue is aviation fuel. We don’t have a lot on site because it goes off quickly. So we would rely on Wellington to fuel up.’’
But Coates warns if Marlborough is affected by a quake, Wellington is likely to be damaged too.
‘‘It all depends which faultline it is. If it’s the Alpine Fault, it’s likely Wellington will be hit harder than us.’’
PORT MARLBOROUGH
Ships may not be able to dock at Marlborough’s industrial port in Picton if terminals are damaged.
Port Marlborough chief executive Rhys Welbourn says some of the link-span terminals are floating and some are fixed, so they behave differently in a quake depending on the movement.
It’s unlikely they will all be damaged, and ships may just have to dock and berth at a different terminal, Welbourn says.
‘‘It might be more difficult getting people and cargo off, but there are multiple options depending on the severity.
The port is considering building specific backup berths for ferries. They also built a hilltop back-up office after the 2016 earthquake, so they could keep working if a quake causes a tsunami.
‘‘We know from mapping the inundation zones the port could be underwater in a tsunami,’’ Welbourn says.
He represents the port as one of several critical services in the Lifelines Group, co-ordinated by Civil Defence.
‘‘We’re part of a supply chain, and you need all the pieces of the puzzle for that to work. So all of us key pieces sit around the table and talk,’’ Welbourn says.
‘‘The whole of New Zealand is learning from each earthquake that happens. While we’re rebuilding roads and fixing houses, we’re also learning about how to best respond next time.’’
The Lifelines Group also worked closely with the Nelson Marlborough District Health Board.
HOSPITAL
Blenheim’s Wairau Hospital will likely lose internet access after an earthquake, and staff will likely have to use paper processes again until the system is back up.
Chief executive Peter Bramley says the newer hospital buildings are made of lightweight timber designed to be safe during quakes, and the older two-storey Arthur Wicks building was quakestrengthened last year.
There is radio and satellite phone coverage linking the Blenheim and Nelson hospitals.
Staff test backup generators every month, refresh 20,000 litres of stored diesel, and check emergency grab bags are ready to go.
They’re also trained in incident management and evacuation exercises and can pull extra staff from around the country.
A mobile air shelter can be used as an emergency field hospital, and mobile tents and surgical units can be set up in the carpark.
Working after a quake can be very stressful for hospital staff, Coates says.
‘‘Hospital staff don’t always get to check on their families. They’re working in ED and triaging casualties, and they’re not used to mass casualties.
‘‘The power is going on and off, you’re scared and you can’t make contact with family and there’s lots of stuff going on at once.
‘‘And in a large earthquake there will be aftershocks. We all have to keep working in an unstable environment for quite some time.’’
All businesses need contingency plans, Coates says.
‘‘All of a sudden you may go from a building full of ablebodied people to a workplace with people who are injured and cannot walk or are blind.
‘‘It’s important to keep revisiting it. Think about why you’re evacuating the building, often that’s not the safest thing to do.’’
TSUNAMI
Coastal residents must evacuate straight away after a quake that’s ‘‘long and strong’’ – goes for a long time, or is too strong to stand up in.
‘‘Don’t wait for a warning, especially if you’re near the sea,’’ Coates says.
Sounds residents often think a tsunami will lose impact by the time it reaches Havelock or Picton, she says.
‘‘But in fact it will make it worse. If you put a large volume of water in a narrow place it goes up very fast ... like a funnel effect.’’
She encouraged households to check their tsunami risk on the Marlborough District Council’s inundation maps.
The team will visit some Sounds residents and baches over the summer again to remind people to be prepared, even on holiday, Coates says.