Government has reason to cheer

‘‘The polling also reinforced the truism that Labour’s success is closely tied to the personal appeal of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.’’

Critics of the Labour-led coalition Government have tried to embed two phrases in the national consciousness, with little success. The most recent of the two attack lines, ‘‘dysfunction junction’’, has been used by National leader Simon Bridges to suggest that the Government has been unable to make progress because of its contradictions and relative inexperience. It was intended to contrast with National’s unity and discipline. But the criticism has backfired on an Opposition whose factions and toxic culture have been exposed by the Jami-Lee Ross scandal, and it will be a long time before National can hope to describe any other organisation as dysfunctional.

The other phrase was more serious. ‘‘Coalition of losers’’ suggested that we have an illegitimate government. The theme persisted for months and depended on a wilful misunderstanding of MMP that was encouraged by some in the Opposition. Former Australian prime minister John Howard endorsed their grievance when he told a National Party conference in July that in his opinion the 2017 election result was ‘‘disappointing, unjust and unfair’’.

The implication is that as National won 56 seats to Labour’s 46, and 44.4 per cent of the party vote compared to Labour’s 36.9 per cent, it should have had the automatic right to form a government. Many in National have found it hard to let go of this view. But recent events and polling have finally put that myth to bed.

This week’s Colmar Brunton poll shows National has hit the doldrums of opposition. With 45 per cent support, Labour again eclipsed National, which has slipped to 43 per cent. A Labour-NZ First-Green coalition with a combined party vote of 50.3 per cent in September 2017 would now enjoy 57 per cent support, and the poll even suggests Labour and the Greens could govern alone.

The polling also reinforced the truism that Labour’s success is closely tied to the personal appeal of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

It is a heartening result for this Government as it marks a year since it was sworn in. It has not been an entirely smooth year. The Government’s problems with ministers Clare Curran and Meka Whaitiri were well-publicised. Both NZ First and the Greens have had to adjust to the relationship. But the worst predictions failed to come to pass. Some expected Winston Peters’ stint as acting prime minister to be a reign of chaos rather than the easy transition it proved. And it has been a long time since anyone tried to claim a working mother was somehow unable to lead the country.

Instead, Ardern remains the Government’s top performer. She demonstrated that in the House this week. When Bridges asked the boilerplate Opposition question about whether she stood by her Government’s statements and actions, Ardern shot back with a minute-long answer, listing from extending paid parental leave and increasing the minimum wage to introducing free tertiary fees and planting trees.

The Government’s first 12 months find it stronger, despite the critics who expected or even hoped it would all go pear-shaped. They leave us wondering about the counterfactual history. Would a coalition of the so-called winners really have gone the distance?