Putting a price on the jersey At a glance
Picking 51 players for the northern tour is bordering on ridiculous, but Steve Hansen really isn’t devaluing the All Blacks jersey any more than it already has been. Against Japan in Tokyo today, six players are set to run out in black for the first time, with eight on test debut.
Since Hansen last month revealed his master plan of selecting 19 extras for this fixture while 23 frontliners jet off for extra preparation ahead of next week’s test against England, much chat has been that his methods are stripping the sacredness from the revered uniform.
But pure numbers tell us this ‘cheapening’ has been happening years before he took over the head coaching role, with Hansen merely dishing out debuts in a similar way to how his predecessors did, as rugby becomes deeper ensconced in the days of professionalism.
Come World Cup time, if the All Blacks are to claim a record third successive title they will have to play seven tests in a six-week period with a squad of 31.
Playing five over as many weekends to end this season could have provided a bit of simulation, but if Hansen was convincing enough to attain sign-off to bolster the ranks – for what he’s freely described as a money-making game – then that’s his prerogative.
Once the most sacred item going around, the silver fern-bearing black beauty has also for almost two decades now been available in stores to any paying customer. Or those with a few games on the domestic scene can score one for free.
It took 117 years for the first 1000 All Blacks to be capped (average 8.55 per year). We’re now about to hit 1181, and if that post-1000 rate continues, it will be only 99 years for the next 1000 to have pulled on the jersey (10.06 per year).
It’s the way of the times – more matches, more use of reserves, more rotation, more building towards World Cups, and more caution around injury – notably concussion.
From 2001 to 2003 no less than 39 players made their debuts (including non-tests) for New Zealand (13.00 per year), then during the Graham Henry and Hansen tenures over the past 15 years, it’s 144 (9.60 per year).
HANSEN v HENRY
It’s Hansen who would have comfortably accounted for the majority of these debutants, right?
Well, actually, it’s exactly equal-footing – with Hansen and Henry at 72 apiece.
Henry’s reign lasted eight years, so he averaged nine debutants per season, and 0.68 per game (including non-tests against the Barbarians in 2004 and 2009 and Munster in 2008).
Hansen is in his seventh year in charge, and come the end of the season he will average 10.29 debutants a year and 0.73 a game.
And even in comparison to the Wallabies jersey under coach Michael Cheika, who doesn’t have nearly the talent pool to risk at the top level, the black one is still only awarded at around the same rate as the gold.
Since taking over in late 2014, Cheika (assuming his three uncapped men play on the northern tour)
will have handed out 46 debuts, at 9.20 per year, and 0.77 per game come year-end, having rolled out a whopping 19 in 2017.
HOW THEY BROUGHT THEM IN
Hansen has generally had a steady flow of debutants spread through the years, while Henry was far more up and down in that regard.
After just four and three debutants in 2006 and 2007 respectively, Henry then ran out 16 in 2008 following his reappointment after the previous year’s World Cup disaster. By the next World Cup in 2011 he was back to just one new cap (Jarrad Hoeata).
Hansen, meanwhile, has a lower per-year tally of seven debutants, in 2014, while his highest figure
was the 13 used in 2017.
He also has a more consistent spread of what competitions he debuts players in.
Out of his 72, it could be presumed Hansen handed most of these out on the northern tours, with the bigger squads and the odd game there allowing for experimentation.
But, actually, 29, or 40.28 per cent, have come in the June/July domestic test programme, which exceeds the 36.11 per cent for the end-of-year excursions.
Henry had a similar rate for the northern tours (38.89 per cent), but his big difference to Hansen was the minimal debuts in the Tri-Nations, as it was then known, with just four players (5.56 per cent) getting their first shot there.
Hansen’s 23.61 per cent for the Rugby Championship is no doubt much higher because of the competition’s expansion in his first year as coach in 2012, with Argentina providing some ‘easier’ tests, rather than players being thrown in against Australia or South Africa.
In terms of per-game, Henry didn’t mind a big crop of debutants playing all at once. In 2005 he gave six players first caps in a 91-0 rout of Fiji in Albany. Twice he debuted five in a match – the 27-6 grind over Italy in Christchurch in 2009 and the 66-28 romp over Ireland in New Plymouth a year later.
Until this weekend Hansen has never debuted so many in one game, with the closest being the five trotted out in last year’s 28-23 win over the French XV – a non-test match.
HOW LONG DO DEBUTANTS LAST?
The talk of a jersey being ‘devalued’ would also relate to how many tests a player goes on to wear it for.
Players get their debuts due to all sorts of scenarios, and likewise their careers end for various reasons too.
Despite also having to contend with the increase in popularity of players heading overseas, Hansen has still managed eight players through to a half century of games or more, with Dane Coles, Brodie Retallick, Sam Cane, Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett still remaining a key part of that group going forward.
But is he picking and discarding in and amongst that core? Are there too many hangers-on merely holding tackle bags?
Including today’s test, 32 of his 72 debutants (44.44 per cent) will have played between zero and five games for the All Blacks. But that’s not bad going, as Henry had 28 (38.89 per cent) in the 0-5 game bracket during his tenure, while several of Hansen’s still have the chance to push on. All Blacks one-game wonders 2004-2018 (including today’s match v Japan): Sosene Anesi (2005 v Fiji), Kevin Senio (2005 v Australia), Kevin O’Neill (2008 v South Africa), Scott Waldrom (2008 v Munster), Lelia Masaga (2009 v Italy), George Whitelock (2009 v Italy), Ben Afeaki (2013 v France), Frank Halai (2013 v Japan), Brad Weber (2015 v Samoa), Charlie Ngatai (2015 v Samoa), James Broadhurst (2015 v South Africa), Akira Ioane (2017 v French XV), Atu Moli (2017 v French XV), Dalton Papalii (2018 v Japan), Tyrel Lomax (2018 v Japan), Gareth Evans (2018 v Japan), Brett Cameron (2018 v Japan), Matt Proctor (2018 v Japan), George Bridge (2018 v Japan),