Economist tips top of south resurgence
While the national economy was unlikely to accelerate this year, the demand for primary exports will keep the top of the south ticking along, says ANZ Bank’s money expert.
Chief economist Sharon Zollner met with a crosssection of the local business community this week, offering a generally positive appraisal of where the area stood.
Her visit followed the results of ANZ’s Business Outlook monthly survey in February, which canvassed businesses nationwide to gauge overall confidence and analyses where the economy will be going over the next 12 months.
Thirty-one per cent of respondents reported that they expected general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. Firms’ expectations for their own activity also eased with 11 per cent expecting a lift.
Agriculture and services sectors were the most optimistic and construction the least, while export intentions fell to the weakest since March 2009.
‘‘We think the economy is going to muddle along, but it’s not going to accelerate this year,’’ Zollner said.
The top of the south fared poorly in the most recent ASB regional economic scoreboard report, with Nelson and Marlborough placed at the very bottom of the table with Tasman also falling to 11th out of 15 regions. Zollner said she had received enough positive feedback from local customers to suggest any fiscal blip would be temporary for the top of the south.
‘‘I would have thought the diversity here was a bit of a strength – it’s one of the regions that’s less exposed to dairy – but what we’ve seen in recent years is that strength in our commodity prices hasn’t just been milk.’’
‘‘In those crazy years of the last business cycle [2008/2009] it was just a white gold rush, this time it’s been absolutely booming if you’ve been growing apples or gold kiwifruit, lamb, beef, while dairy’s been a relative underperformer.’’ Labour shortage had been one concern raised during Zollner’s visit, although the data suggested firms have been investing less and employing more.
‘‘You can grow your output by either buying a machine or hiring more people and firms – on average – have been more inclined to hiring more people.’’
Zollner said while the development of tech industry and highend manufacturing was bringing plenty to the table, New Zealand’s advantage remained in agriculture for the forseeable future.
‘‘I think, economically, we will remain a big farm for a long time yet, though obviously we’ve got more going on than that.’’
Zollner acknowledged there would be some flow-on from recent drought and bushfires, but not enough to cause a tailspin at a national level. When fire threatened Paul Shutte’s home and business during the Pigeon Valley fires, it spurred him to do his bit to help out his community.
In the aftermath of the February fires, he made the decision to join up with his local Brightwater volunteer fire brigade.
Shutte, who along with his family was evacuated from home for two weeks, said the fires were the catalyst for him to take action.
‘‘I’d been meaning to do for a long time, but life just kept getting in the way of things.
‘‘When the fire’s on your back doorstep and you see how big it is, it puts a lot into perspective.’’
As soon as the fire had died down, Shutte called up the brigade to see how he could get involved.
‘‘I’m the kind of person who wants to be involved in stuff in the community.
Shutte is just one of many who have expressed an interest in becoming a volunteer firefighter during the past month.
Principal rural fire officer Ian Reade said there had been a noticeable increase in the number of volunteer recruits turning out at stations across the region.
‘‘All of our crews are reporting heightened interest from the community around volunteering.
‘‘All of a sudden fire is at the front and centre of people’s minds, we saw that with the response of the community – it prompts people to take action.’’
Brightwater Voluntary Rural Fire Force deputy chief Steve Foote said they had four new people turn out a week ago at the station.
‘‘That was kind of cool – we often struggle to get one [new recruit] along every six months.’’
In Stoke, fire chief Lance Williams said there were now more volunteers than positions available.
‘‘Since the fire there’s been a dramatic increase in inquiries – we’ve had six or seven since then.
‘‘The numbers change all the time, when we have the room we’ll contact them.’’