The three steps to zero
Norman Smith discusses the broad priorities for us to reach a carbon zero economy by 2050.
In his comprehensive feature about how to meet the 2050 target for a zero carbon economy, Joel MacManus outlined seven ambitious goals, each requiring a major effort and investment (How we get to zero carbon, Nov 30). The tasks appeared daunting if not overwhelming.
Now for the good news – the critical first and major steps of this long march were taken 40 years ago.
Chess aficionados pore over innovative and bold endgame moves achieving dramatic victories; true masters know that in the less glamorous opening and middle stages lie the foundations critical to success.
Like a chess game, the economic and social transformation journey to zero carbon success will roll out in three interconnected stages over the next three decades.
2020-30: Opening moves
Energy efficiency – immediate and cumulative benefits over next 30 years will deliver 60-70 per cent of total emissions reduction.
Efficiency technologies that can deliver the bulk of reductions in energy-derived emissions are well proven and self-funding. There will be many co-benefits, such as increasing productivity, improving the balance of payments, and, close to home, health improvements through healthier housing.
Building understanding and capacity and starting today are the key.
To use an (exaggerated) example – cumulated savings over 30 years from an LED light installed today will be greater by January 1, 2050, than an electric vehicle under the Christmas tree on December 25, 2049, with only six days to make a difference.
2030-40: Mid-game
Renewable energy – including fuel switching and increasing use as transport fuels, an increasing impact from 2030, 20-30 per cent of total emissions reduction.
Known and rapidly improving technologies mean the contribution of renewable energy such as photovoltaics will accelerate their contribution from 10 years and then over the next 20, but from a modest base.
The shift from fossil fuels to electricity for transport and the integration of stationary and transport fuels/energy will be made possible by battery technology on the same price-performance improvement curve as solar panels over the last decade.
2040-50: Endgame
Emerging technologies. Accelerated contribution after 2040 to 2050 but limited time to cumulate savings, 5-15 per cent of total emissions reduction.
It will not be until the final decade, in the run-up to 2050, that the rollout of technology game-changers – hydrogen, carbon sequestration or carboneating E coli – can achieve sufficient scale to make a difference.
New Zealand, along with the rest of the world, should have begun the energy-efficiency journey in earnest decades ago. Full throttle from the current slow pace will ensure emissions reductions achieve the require trajectory towards 2050.
Two widely accepted investment maxims need to be jettisoned – (i) there will be diminishing returns for effort after picking the ‘‘low-hanging fruit’’, and (ii) if it seems too good to be true then it probably is. Energy efficiency is the exception to both.
Even better than a free lunch – it’s food somebody else buys that you get paid to eat.
No country has come close to realising the potential of energy efficiency and renewable energy; by some international benchmarks New Zealand is doing worse than most similar economies.
The World Bank’s RISE study (Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy 2018 ) is a set of indicators that compares national policy and regulatory frameworks for sustainable energy against GDP per capita.
New Zealand has the natural advantage of hydroelectric power – but the report says our policy and regulatory frameworks for developing more renewable energy are lagging and we also underperform in energy efficiency.
Energy efficiency is unsexy and undramatic, but it works. Through cost savings increased productivity, economic development and a range of wellbeing benefits, it can meet the costs of an accelerated and just transition.
As the best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago and the second best time is today, we have lost many opportunities to save the planet over the years and so the best time to start is now.
The best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago and the second best time is today.
This is an abbreviated version of an article recently published in the online industry publication Energy News. Norman Smith established the first energy management qualification. He is on the board of the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority. The opinions expressed here are his own.