More people, more challenges
The population of Tasman District is tipped to increase by 7300 between 2021 and 2031, to reach almost 64,000.
Over 30 years, from 2021 to 2051, the number of people is projected to grow by 19,300 to almost 76,000.
The projections, under a mediumgrowth scenario, will be used by the Tasman District Council to calculate future residential and business development. This information will be used in the development of the Long Term Plan 2021-31 (LTP) and other related council planning.
In a staff report, council senior policy adviser Brylee Wayman says recent population estimates show that the district’s population is growing at a higher level than the high scenario of Statistics NZ projections, which are now three years out of date, and at a higher level than was assumed for the Long Term Plan 2018-28.
Every three years, the council uses updated population projections to help predict the location and timing of future development. However, due to delays in Census data, the next update of Statistics NZ population projections is not due until December, which is too late for the development of the LTP 2021-31.
Given the importance of population projections for the council’s long-term planning, it engaged Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd to provide district and ward population and household projections, with low, medium and high scenarios.
‘‘Of the three population projection scenarios, staff recommend the medium scenario as the most appropriate to inform the demand forecast assumption for the next Long Term Plan,’’ Wayman says in her report.
Wayman told councillors that feedback from the council auditor supported the use of the projections, and also considered the medium scenario ‘‘as generally the appropriate projection to use as long as you consider the implications of it being lower or higher’’.
The projections were based on long-term demographic trends – births and deaths – and observed migration trends since 2006.
In her report, Wayman says that under the medium scenario, it is likely that 400 new dwellings will be needed each year. This is similar to the number consented by the council in recent years.
Councillor Dean McNamara questioned some of the projections.
‘‘I can see that Brightwater outnumbers Wakefield in growth, and yet their room for expansion is considerably more restricted, I would have thought, given the number of subdivisions happening in Wakefield,’’ McNamara said.
He also queried the projected increase for Tapawera, tipping that it could be higher ‘‘given the number of hops that are going in in that area’’ and the planned Kohatu park development.
Councillor Mark Greening said he would be interested to see the natural birth rate growth data ‘‘because, to be quite frank, the rest are unimportant’’.
Greening said natural birth rate data would reveal a declining population. Migration was the reason for ‘‘this growth-driven frenzy’’.
‘‘The more land you open up, the more they come,’’ he said. ‘‘I think we’re creating our own spiral.’’
Wayman said that because of an ageing population, ‘‘that natural component is declining over time’’.
‘‘Net migration is really driving [the increase],’’ she said.
Councillors agreed to accept the medium scenario of updated population projects but noted that in specific communities, other factors may need to be taken into account.