Businesses in tourist meccas feel the pinch
So it has come to this. As I heard someone say this week, it was always on the cards but I never thought I would see the day.
I also heard another person – a doctor in a swanky hotel – say that she wasn’t afraid of coronavirus, she was afraid of people going nuts about it.
This is not the time to quibble about government moves that will no doubt save many lives if they are successful – but you can’t help feeling that the world has indeed gone nuts.
I’m on a tour of South Island tourist towns with visual journalist Alden Williams to report on the pain of small businesses hit by coronavirus measures. We might have made our run a little too early because, although the popular tourist destinations are quieter than usual, tourists are still about, and you even see the odd bus tour group. Campervans are still on the road, and popular spots still have visitors.
Ironically, if you got into the country before the self-isolation restrictions, or have the time and money to sit out self-isolation, this is a great time to be a tourist. Those continuing their trips are able to experience the sights undisturbed by crowds of fellow travellers.
Hopefully, those tourists are complying with the new rules.
Rumours about recently arrived tourists not self-isolating are rife, and it’s hard to know whether there is any truth to them. Some cafe workers aren’t taking any chances and are wearing masks.
By the end of last week, southern tourism operators still had some hope that the usual wave of European tourists at this time of year would keep them afloat until things returned to normal.
Any tourism business highly dependent on visitors from China and South Korea felt the bite of the travel restrictions weeks ago, but others might have thought they would see the crisis through.
Most operators appear to have had a very good summer, and some would be scaling down at this time of year anyway. Others, however, depend on a buoyant March and April, and keep staff on to cater for the autumn trade.
By Monday, towns like Geraldine, Tekapo and Aoraki/Mt Cook were seeing the downturn bite. As the week went on, the cancellations and postponements were in full swing and the extent of the devastation was becoming clear.
Most of the tourists still on their trips, having escaped the selfisolation restrictions, were deciding to go home early due to worries about family at home and the danger of losing their insurance cover. With airlines cancelling scheduled flights, some were also worried that they might not be able to fly home.
On Thursday night, we booked into accommodation in Aoraki/Mt Cook. The place is normally humming at this time of year and was certainly not deserted, with plenty of groups and independent travellers about.
However, with the latest measures sinking in, every business is staring into the apocalypse as bookings are swept aside by cancellations.
I suppose you could say that at least the uncertainty has been removed, allowing businesses to plan and make decisions. Many things are still up in the air, however. No-one knows how long the crisis will last, or whether travel habits will change long-term as a result of the upheavals.
This is going to affect everyone in New Zealand, not just the tourism operators. The country is going to appreciate, in a most painful way, how important the tourism industry is.
It’s true that much of the labour keeping the industry running in the peak season comes from overseas, but this can be overstated, and many downstream businesses, from accountants to free range egg suppliers, will be hurt in the downturn.
The Government might be able to prop up some businesses with assistance packages, but this is pointless if there are no customers. If a bright side exists, it’s that everyone is in this together. Banks will, you would think, take a sympathetic approach simply because they can’t suddenly call in every loan.
I don’t like war analogies when we talk about the coronavirus –which, after all, is doing what nature does. However, this unprecedented crisis has parallels to the economic contraction caused by wars. Experience has shown that recoveries can be very quick. As The Economist magazine points out, at the end of world wars, economies can experience nearimmediate bursts of growth.
Wars generally cause chaos and disruption over many years. Coronavirus hit New Zealand a few weeks ago and, although it would be a brave person to make any predictions as things change from day to day, the crisis could be over in a few months.
We have to hope that with the right amount of economic stimulus and assistance, industries like tourism will bounce back quickly.
The question, of course, is how soon the old days will return, and what they will look like.
The country is going to appreciate, in a most painful way, how important the tourism industry is.