Writing’s on the wall for Cane
Ian Foster has probably been faced with enough crossroads in the previous 18 months, but that doesn’t mean he can ignore perhaps the biggest one of his career.
The All Blacks coach has changed his front row, he has changed his coaches, he has changed his first-five and now he has to change path once more. Ahead of the northern tour Foster has to change his captain.
The main reason why this is so important – and Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt may well be bending Foster’s ear already – is the physical domination that Dalton Papali’i brought to the side on Saturday night. Papali’i’s performance went almost unnoticed by most observers, but the man was a beast. He crushed the Wallabies back row. He made captain Sam Cane look a lightweight.
Ever since Cane suffered his appalling run of injuries, he has not been the same player. There is no shame in that. Richie McCaw was a freak of nature, but the modern game has a habit of smashing number sevens to pieces. Look at Michael Hooper. The man is a warrior, but he is in mental and physical rehab. England’s sevens are in and out of the casualty ward, as are Wales’. It’s a brutal position.
And it was that brutality which Papali’i unleashed on Australia. Whether it was Lalakai Foketi, Jordan Petaia, Rob Valetini or Harry Wilson trying to get over the advantage line from swift lineout ball, the 24-year-old bent them backwards. He and Jordie Barrett brought a physicality to that channel which has been missing all season.
But then Papali’i is a bigger, more powerful man than Cane. And with his 25th birthday coming up in a few weeks, he will be at a peak around next year’s World Cup. I don’t think Foster will replace Cane unless Schmidt and Ryan come at him hard, but surely there is no other sensible option.
The All Blacks still have a sliver of a chance at next year’s World Cup if the right adjustments are made now. It is all rather reminiscent of 1995. Laurie Mains had his team hopelessly wrong when he took over in 1992, but by the time of the World Cup three years later, he had almost stumbled into the right combination.
Foster is almost replicating those times, but he has yet to get his back row right. Papali’i was involved massively in many of the key moments in the match against Australia. It was his strong jackal position that prompted Jed Holloway and Wilson to tip him up and attract the first yellow card of the game. Australia’s early momentum was immediately shattered.
It has also not been noted how important Papali’i’s strength was at the heart of the All Blacks’ dominant rolling maul. When they were quite rightly awarded the penalty try, it was Papali’i who had held the maul together.
It had initially splintered as it went to the right, but Papali’i, with Codie Taylor on his shoulder, stayed upright and going forward until the support got to him. Ardie Savea regained his feet, the next wave latched on and Dave Porecki went to the bin.
Yet none of Papali’i’s massive contribution was spoken of on commentary, yet alone in the stands. No, people saw him throw an interception towards the end of the first half, and that somehow added up to a bad game. The All Blacks’ coaches will see a long way past that.
They will see how important Papali’i was in the clearout work. The All Blacks were as efficient in this area as they have been all season.
Sam Whitelock and Papali’i were like a pair of tractors, with Brodie Retallick not far behind, as they unearthed Australian bodies. Time and again they produced quick ball. A huge Papali’i clearout on Wilson nearly made the space and time for Savea to score early. When Richie Mo’unga, Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan combined so deftly with short passes off a lineout, it was Papali’i on the inside shoulder to clear out. That momentum cascaded all the way to the tryline.
Again in the second half when Taylor carried close to Australia’s line, Papali’i cleared out Pete Samu, Retallick monstered Valetini and Whitelock scored through the gap.
This was an efficiency that we haven’t seen from the All Blacks all year. It is also worth noting that Papali’i provided great power on the outside hip of his prop and the All Blacks scrum was usually dominant on his side.
Moreover he did not concede a penalty in the match. That is something we have not been able to say for Cane very often. The captain’s offences have frequently put the All Blacks on the back foot.
This is Papali’i’s time. He is a natural leader. He captained his school to a title, he was a huge part of the New Zealand under-20 team that won the 2017 World Cup, and he took the Blues on an unbeaten 13-match run. How they missed him in the final stages of the season when he was out with appendicitis.
Foster has said: ‘‘I have faith in Sam Cane.’’
But that is what Cane has become to many observers – an article of faith. Papali’i is an article of fact. He did the business on Saturday in perhaps the most influential performance by a New Zealand No 7 since McCaw graced the grass.
If Foster – and it is a colossal if – has the courage to bring Papali’i in as his first choice, then that opens the way for Whitelock to captain. It’s a win, win. Whitelock is the Alun Wyn Jones of New Zealand. He just keeps on coming.
There was a moment 35 minutes into the first half, with most of the players running on fumes, when Beauden Barrett kicked up field and the Aussies tried to hold off New Zealand’s chasing backs. And then Whitelock arrived, as always. The first forward there, shifting bodies. And if he wasn’t shifting bodies, he was taking short kickoffs, high or low, or calling the lineout, or holding back the Australian tide when Jordie Barrett was taking kick-offs.
You love the graft and grind and sheer bloody honesty of the man. You love the fact that at 10-0 up and with a kickable penalty, he went for the jugular and got the penalty try and the consequent yellow card. And you love the fact that at the end of the match, when he was asked a ‘‘final question’’ about the last test at home, he didn’t make it all about him and the All Blacks.
Instead Whitelock said: ‘‘It’s great playing at home. It’s also awesome seeing the Black Ferns play out here and want to wish them all the best for the upcoming World Cup. We’re just like the rest of the country. We’re right behind them.’’
It’s a crossroads, Ian. Can you honestly see the way ahead?