Politics
There’s only one way that Winston is going to be PM.
On September 24, anyone wanting to open coalition negotiations with New Zealand First would be advised to have a ticket booked to Christchurch. To take Winston Peters at his word, he and his caucus will be starting work that day on rebuilding the cathedral, brick by brick.
This, literally, is one of his bottom-line policies. From there he’ll proceed to another, personally leading a mission into the Pike River Mine. (Good that he’s quit the fags.) And KiwiRail may as well get cracking on the mothballed Northland line, because Peters will next expect to catch a train on it.
The question now is not what NZ First’s bottom lines are but which of its policies, if any, are not deal-breakers. The restoration of smacking, abolition of the Maori seats, downsizing Parliament, wiping some student loans, reducing tobacco tax … Prime Minister Bill English wasn’t being sarcastic when he said he’d lost count of Peters’ bottom lines.
For mental health preservation, neither the National Party nor the Labour Party is keen to keep too close a track of them, because even a backof-the-envelope sum suggests it’ll be a no-deal either way. You don’t get far down the list before hitting the wall. The cathedral rebuild is a maybe, Pike River is a probably not, but the Maori seats’ scrapping is an absolute no-no. Neither major party could possibly agree to it. They’d be cutting their own throats, and as NZ First insists on polling everyone, not just Maori, they’d be agreeing to something grotesquely anti-democratic.
So if Peters puts his money where his mouth is, we may as well all stop right there with the talk of coalition negotiations, because there’s an impassable obstacle before they even start. Even if NZ First holds the balance of power, it’ll have to do so from the cross benches – right?
As Peters himself might say, not so fast, sunshine.
He has his next Beehive suite all measured up. He’s not going to spend what may be his last, legacycementing parliamentary stint in Opposition, raising points of order between Grey Power rallies. There will be a builder’s crack in those bottom lines somewhere.
SEMANTICAL PYGMIES
Last time Peters smote his brow over a bottom line – that his party was impervious to “the baubles of office” – we unreasonably assumed this meant what it appeared to mean; that NZ First would not be accepting ministerial office and was only interested in policies in exchange for its support.
Later, as Peters unabashedly accepted the Foreign Affairs plum, he belatedly explained to us semanti-
NZ First’s bottom lines are great rhetoric, but who really wants a referendum on smacking?
cal pygmies that the word “bauble” meant a cheap trifle. A ministerial job was hardly a bauble, and how stupid we were to think otherwise.
So somehow, a sliding semantical logarithm will be applied to defer the Maori seats referendum and much else. The bottom lines are great rhetoric, but who really wants a referendum on smacking? As for downsizing Parliament, does Peters really expect us to believe he will be the turkey to hasten its Christmas? NZ First would struggle to get into Parliament again in a 100-MP system, as would Peters to retain a muchenlarged Northland seat. And even then, he and new chum Shane Jones in Whangarei would be eating each other’s lunch.
In the meantime, National is officially pretending NZ First doesn’t exist and telling itself, and us, a
happy little story about how its three current mates will be enough to keep the Beehive. For English, another tip: while in Christchurch for those opening talks, there’s a terrific whisky importer downtown, whence it might be wise to lay in a few bottles.
Also screening reality assiduously are the Greens, pretending that going hard-out to maximise their own vote is the way to get into office. Co-leader Metiria Turei’s bold benefit-fraud gambit is set to become the issue of this campaign. But it won’t get the Opposition a step closer to the Beehive. Possibly the opposite.
However righteous Turei’s personal experience of poverty, her stand is not a vote-maximiser for the change-of-government bloc. It should nudge a few extra votes the Greens’ way, but most emphatically not from either NZ First or National. Quite the contrary. Unless the Opposition bloc can finally cannibalise the Government bloc, the Nats are safe.
RACIST SLURS
Compounding this is Turei’s charge that Peters is racist – only fuelling scepticism that those three parties could ever put a functional government together. Who could happily share power with someone they thought was racist or with someone who thought they were racist?
The electoral maths remains: the Government will change only if a) Labour makes it past about 35%, and b) the sum total of Labour, the Greens and NZ First exceeds National and its mates.
We have a) because even if New Zealanders were ready for what could be termed a “coalition of the losers”, Peters is not. NZ First would never risk throwing its lot in with the others unless one of them had a respectable vote lead. It’s theoretically possible for three modest-sized caucuses to coalesce and govern, but it’s a risky option.
It’s also where the preposterous reckoning about Peters becoming the next prime minister comes from. The fantasy goes that if the three parties get a majority but Labour is still in its slough, then for the sake of “legitimacy” perceptions, the leader with the strongest public profile – Peters – should be top dog.
It’s a lovely theory. But does anyone imagine the Labour Party council would say, “Budge up, Andrew!” and sign that off? Or that the Greens could keep faith with their voters under such a power swapsie? Or that such a configuration would make it to Christmas?
Peters makes growly noises about the speculation while secretly lapping it up. But he’s smart enough to know he’ll only get to the ninth floor if he earns it by getting NZ First’s vote past Labour’s. Or, as he vaingloriously predicts, past National’s.
In summary, it’s fairy tales at bedtime all round this campaign. The Little Matchgirl (Turei), Jack and the Beanstalk ( Little), The Little Red Hen (English) and, of course, Peters gets two: The Valiant Little Tailor AND The Princess and the Pea.
The Greens pretend that going hard-out to maximise their own vote is the way to get into office.