Jane Clifton
Now is not the time for a National Party leadership coup.
Here we are again with the Billing and couping. At least when Bill English had the skids under him in 2003, he’d done a bit to deserve it, such as losing an election badly and failing to rebuild hope. It’s said that those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. In our politics, everyone learns their history diligently, but seemingly with the intention of repeating it in ever more stupid permutations.
National is the most popular, respected and well-placed Opposition that Parliament has seen in decades, possibly ever – especially at this stage of an electoral cycle. Yet it’s now doing the thing most likely to reverse all that: having leadership wobbles.
Actually, it’s worse than that. There are no leadership wobbles, but a few MPs are trying to manufacture them. In that, if nothing else, they have probably succeeded.
Imagine trying to explain this to an overseas visitor. We have this leader, Bill English, who’s a sort of Bonnie Prince Charlie figure – the would-be king many regard as wrongfully deprived of the throne. Having led his team to a famous “victory”, he was exiled by a certain Not So Young Pretender. But never say die. English has remained dignified and effective in exile. He and, most tellingly, his party remain solidly, election-winningly popular, whereas most new Oppositions are consigned to indefinite poll purgatory.
All his team have to do is wait, and in three years – or possibly sooner – the throne could be theirs. If not, he’s just the sort of trusty general to keep the party in good heart until a popular successor emerges.
But some of his MPs are bored. And they fancy their chances – although without any basis in evidence.
National MPs have been playing with future leadership scenarios ever since John Key unexpectedly stepped down in December 2016, and some have become rather addicted to it. English and his deputy, Paula Bennett, were elected unopposed at that time, after a couple of others realised they didn’t have the numbers to beat them. But the “Why not me?” button is hard to unpress.
POLITICAL CONVOLVULUS
That’s only human. Being in Opposition can be soul-destroying, and so making lists is a traditional way to keep one’s spirits up. Every party needs succession options, so MPs constantly assess their own and others’ chances.
What they don’t usually do, unless they have a basket-case leader and a reliable headcount, is enable a journalist to write a story about it. Even unattributably.
That this has just happened is nonsensical: talk of replacing the leader and deputy of a stunningly popular party, neither of whom wants or needs to go, and with no successors who wouldn’t pose as many problems as they might solve.
If there even is a problem, beside the obvious one of being in Opposition, this kerfuffle could prolong it.
The styling of this week’s leak to Newstalk ZB’s Barry Soper was that English would be allowed to step down with dignity in his own time. To say this is wilfully to plant that political convolvulus, leadership speculation. The leaker may as well have said, “I hereby place an oiled banana skin under Bill’s left foot and clamp a roller skate to his right.”
The leaker added that if English’s
All National has to do is wait, and in three years – or possibly sooner – the throne could be theirs.
own time for stepping down with dignity proved to be some distance hence, then Bennett might be challenged. This, too, is headbangingly pointless. The ebullient Westie irritates some colleagues, but she also has more public appeal than most of them. She’s something of a hate figure, but only to those who wouldn’t vote National, anyway. There’s no empirical evidence that she’s a net liability to the party. She would have to be a viscerally divisive figure internally, as former Labour leader David Cunliffe was, to merit the upheaval of a deputyship coup.
Even then, what’s the alternative? Jacinda Ardern’s rise has so reset the tone and tolerances of our politics that the role demands a woman, preferably a younger one. That rules out Judith Collins. Amy Adams is a possibility but hardly represents generational change. Nikki Kaye would be ideal but might struggle to get the numbers. And the implications of relegating a Māori woman from her current No 2 role in a party hardly overstocked with them are unedifying.
ALL HAT AND NO CATTLE
In any case, shootin’ the deputy cos y’all cain’t knock off the sheriff just underlines that any would-be coupsters are all hat and no cattle.
In their defence, National’s younger MPs are rightly seized with the new imperative of generational change. In that context, an MP who represented generational change when elected in 1990 doesn’t fit the bill to lead the party into 2020. But rejuvenation is only one of the serious considerations parties need to juggle.
Bluntly, the one most of them are fixated on is “When’s my go?” If National doesn’t get back into power next time, today’s young bucks and does will be yesterday’s and a new intake may overleap them, forever depriving them of Cabinet glory. To voters, this is irrelevant. As National’s vote has held up well despite Ardern’s formidable start, English still seems to be connecting with people. What other Nat can honestly say he or she could do a better job for the time being – let alone command a convincing caucus majority? Any change now would simply keep rivalries simmering, possibly without the vote ballast English has sustained.
National is lucky that he was willing to continue, because without him, it faced a similar situation to that of the newly ousted Labour Party in 2008. It chose Phil Goff, one of several tepidly popular eligible candidates of whom the most that could be said was that they would all do an okay job. Three leaders later, they were still unpopular and divided.
Thanks to English, National has time to do the leadership change once and do it right. It needn’t repeat Labour’s saga.
Still, it’s not as if there’s much else for the Nats to do, like challenging the new Government as it dismantles their most treasured policies. Much better to pass the time competing for the Chris Carter Memorial Booby Prize for phantom coups.
Thanks to Bill English, National has time to do the leadership change once and do it right.