Politics
A string of Sroubek-like clangers take a toll on Government support.
Madame Celestia says the sun is ascendant in Sagittarius, creating an ebullient phase for Taureans but making Pisceans restless and Leos romantic; and Colmar Brunton says despite the ascendant economy, the Government’s favourables are down and the Nats are in an ebullient phase, while lovelorn New Zealand First is heading for the outer reaches of Pluto.
Or is it the other way around? Opinion polls can seem as random and fanciful as tea-leaf readings. They’ve got scarcer as the media industry struggles, so no news outlet wants to believe the precious funds spent on the latest 1 News- Colmar Brunton poll produced a “rogue” result.
But it showed National soaring back to a record lead in Opposition as though the Jami-Lee Ross debacle had never happened. This is in startling contrast to polling a month or so earlier, just after Peak JLR, that had National below 40% for the first time in yonks, and Labour comfortably above.
This could all be mere see-sawing within the margin of error – aka drawing The Fool card from Madame Blavatsky’s tarot deck. But even discounting for superstition, the enduring poll trend for National is phenomenal.
No first-term Opposition party in living memory has polled anywhere near it, let alone so consistently. Even the apparent plunge to 37% in research by Labour’s pollster, UMR, a few weeks back was a mighty impressive result for a first-term Opposition, and would hardly dishearten a second- or third-term one, either.
BRIDGES OVER THE RIVER WHY
That Simon Bridges’ personal polling has failed convincingly to crack double figures during his nine months as leader makes this popularity the more remarkable. Few voters rate Bridges, whose disapproval rating is even quite high among National supporters. But the party retains Herculean brand-power.
The rather unimaginative commentariat chorus that Bridges “barks at every passing car” ignores that assiduously highlighting the Government’s possible failings is his core job. Refining policy is almost irrelevant, as the election result did not actually represent a rejection of National’s existing policies.
It seems voters have fairly discounted the JLR affair. Few leaders ever have to deal with such a monstrously disloyal blitz from within as the Ross incendiary. There were tin-earred aspects to the way Bridges handled it, but he and deputy Paula Bennett managed to get the party through it without Ross’ disloyalty catching on. National’s other MPs remain concreted behind the leadership. Nor is there any evidence the leadership was in any way culpable for Ross’ disloyalty or his mental-health outages.
Voters were doubtless fascinated, but not swayed. Meanwhile, the Government continued to give them plenty of reasons to withhold trust. The sheer novelty of a LabourNew Zealand First-Greens coalition is slow to wear off, and unease about it may have been compounded by a series of issues – many of them trivial but strangely telling missteps.
This could all be mere see-sawing within the margin of error – aka drawing The Fool card from the tarot deck.
The clanger is the Karel Sroubek case. Even the most uninterested citizen can see the problem when a Czech who enters the country in murky circumstances and is given the benefit of the doubt, then repays that trust by importing illegal drugs, is nevertheless allowed to stay here because – and we’re not to be told the evidence – he says he might be killed if he has to go home. Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway made that call after a couple of hours’ deliberation, when a bit more inquiry – such as a Google search – would have told him Sroubek had already been back home, and returned unmolested.
Sroubek is almost certainly from a crime family, and character alone would be grounds to block his residency. Heavens, Australia
deports even its Kiwi cuzzies if there’s so much as a rumour they once had a beer with a bro’ who sometimes borrows a concrete mixer from a gang associate.
The now-reversed Sroubek decision has given the Government a solid month of deservedly bad press.
In the great scheme of things, it’s barely a blip. But coming after other simply dumb errors – Clare Curran’s repeatedly failing to disclose her ministerial meetings, Shane Jones’ 400,000 surplus forestry seedlings – it’s the sort of error that gathers weight far beyond its practical effect.
THE UNEXPECTED GOVERNMENT
Added to that is an ineradicable public leeriness at coalitions. Relations in the Beehive are generally pretty cordial but have been strained by process lapses. This is a disorganised administration, as illustrated by the Prime Minister’s press staff – pivotal in any Government’s machinery – having to reapply for their own and/or each other’s jobs in a sudden restructuring. Not a good sign.
As a KPMG consultants’ report released this week disclosed, this was a most unexpected Government, and began life ill-served by an unprepared Ministerial Services. The coalition had to hit the ground running with its shoelaces untied and has barely now got its strides buckled up.
Still, there are also big policy rifts even a hyper-efficient Beehive couldn’t render non-damaging: those formalised in the coalition agreement and those still up for grabs. Whichever coalition party wins each argument, the public is apt to read, “Instability!”
The new Employment Relations Amendment Bill passed through its committee stages with barely a squeak of interparty animus last week – but only after months of necessarily public wrangling. This is actually healthy but can look terrible.
NZ First leader Winston Peters’ notoriety as a brawling contrarian preconditions the public to expect nothing but biffo. But even pulled punches are a no-win. If the party trumpets its success in diluting the legislation, which it did, to appease smaller employers, the public cries “Tail wagging the dog!” and sees it as further evidence of Government instability. If NZ First doesn’t gloat, it misses the chance to fatten its vote, still languishing at or below 5%.
Instead, we’ve had the now reliably hapless Lees-Galloway, also the Workplace Relations Minister, denying the bill has been watered down at all. The public can see that’s not true, so are apt to take it as yet more evidence of desperate duck-shoving in the coalition.
The old tarot deck is rather stacked against the Government. So while Bridges was badly shaken by a “tall, dark stranger”, aka Ross, there may be better fortune in his future.
Winston Peters’ notoriety as a brawling contrarian preconditions the public to expect biffo.