The path to glory
Beating the ABs on the way to a world cup final is a good way to lose it.
He who laughs last laughs loudest. After the finalists were decided, Welsh coach Warren Gatland observed that “teams sometimes play their final in the semi-finals and don’t always turn up for a final. It will be interesting to see how England are next week.”
Rather than address Gatland’s point, England coach Eddie Jones asked journalists to “send my best wishes to Warren and make sure he enjoys the third and fourth play-off”.
Well, Gatland got it dead right: England never looked like replicating their supercharged semi-final effort and were beaten as comprehensively as the All Blacks were.
It reinforced that backing up one great performance with another is the greatest challenge in sport and that the All Blacks did South Africa a huge favour by beating them in pool play, thereby sending them to the softer side of the draw. The Springboks’ path to the final ran through Japan and Wales; to win the tournament, England had to beat the three Southern Hemisphere heavyweights in successive games.
England’s defeat is a continuation of an interesting trend: since 1991, no team that has eliminated the All Blacks – as opposed to beating them in the final, as happened in 1995 – has gone on to win the Rugby World Cup. In 1999, France succumbed to Australia in the final; in 2003, the Wallabies lost the final to England; in 2007, France were knocked out by England in the semis and, in 2019, England tripped over at the final hurdle.
The obvious extrapolation – and the Springboks can vouch for this – is that beating the All Blacks is not the way to win the Webb Ellis Cup.