Politics
In extraordinary times, even politicians know to not behave badly.
As a year that will be indelibly stained with infamy of the most brutal and nauseating kind finally and mercifully draws to an end, it is apt to note the political hits and misses of 2019.
It is time to pay tribute to the political heroes, while highlighting the hopeless and the hapless, and likewise listing the laudable, the laughable and the loathsome. And not forgetting the just plain lucky.
In addition, there will be the odd prediction or three.
We have to begin with that fateful Friday in March when something lurking in the very heart of darkness slinked up SH1 into the heart of Christchurch.
The undiluted horror that was visited on the city in the early afternoon is not where one would have wanted to begin any assessment of the political year. But there is simply no choice in the matter.
The ramifications of the killings are so many and so vast and cut so deep that they dwarf everything else – and moreover will continue to do so for quite some time.
It is worth noting – and then repeating – that the slaughter at the city’s two mosques is arguably the biggest crisis that has confronted a New Zealand prime minister in peacetime.
There is little to be gained, however, by heaping more accolades on Jacinda
Ardern for her consummate handling of the aftermath of the murder spree.
It is instead worth stressing that the Prime Minister’s Christchurch Call amounts to a stunning diplomatic triumph for the leader of a country with a population of barely five million people. Ardern accordingly deserves far more credit for harnessing the opportunity to stem cyber-linked terrorism than her countrymen and women have given her.
There was another positive to emerge from the mosque mayhem. When New Zealand ditched its previous electoral system in the 1990s, and switched to MMP, it was feared the new proportional system would spawn unstable coalition or minority administrations.
The shift to MMP was predicted to be a recipe for paralysis when the chips were down and the big – and likely – unpopular calls had to be made.
Some 20 years-plus later and the jury is still out. To borrow the quip made by the one-time Chinese premier Zhou Enlai, when asked in the early 1970s about the impact of the French Revolution of almost two
centuries beforehand. His reply? “Too early to say.”
When it has come to dealing with matters of momentous proportions with numerous and unforeseen implications for policy-making – such as the Christchurch earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 and the mosque murders – New Zealand’s politicians have put their ideological differences to one side and risen to the challenge almost as one.
The PM’s management of some very difficult issues has veered between the sublime and the very ordinary.
AHEM
Almost. Act’s David Seymour refused to back the bill fast-tracking the ban on military-style semi-automatics, thus denying the rest of Parliament the unanimity that the measure deserved.
Seymour’s sucking up to the gun lobby was in marked contrast to the finesse he displayed in getting his End of Life Choice Bill through Parliament and subject to a binding referendum at next year’s election. The measure will clear that final hurdle. Not so the other matter likewise subject to a nationwide plebiscite.
There has been a marked shift in public opinion on the legalisation of cannabis, with polls now showing a majority opposed to such a step. Turning that anti-legalisation sentiment around is going to be a very tall order. Labour won’t be lifting a finger to help. That party will be worried that any backing for legalisation voiced by any of its MPs could infect Labour’s party vote – especially given Simon Bridges can be relied on to push his theme that Labour is “soft on crime”. If legalisation stalls,
too bad. It will have cost Labour nothing. Going to bat with the Greens over legalisation could end up costing Labour everything.
Enlightened as such cross-Parliament consensus might seem, co-operation melts away when hip-pocket items, such as pension levels, are up for discussion.
In that vein, Greens co-leader James Shaw pulled off something of a coup in his role as Climate Change Minister in securing National’s backing for the Government’s Zero Carbon Bill.
The legislation was criticised for enabling farmers to postpone tackling methane emissions. What mattered was Shaw’s getting the farm lobby to join negotiations.
Shaw’s approach may not have yet achieved much. But it is a start and has paid dividends – unlike Labour’s futile effort to secure New Zealand First’s backing for legislation introducing a capital gains tax.
NOTHING VENTURED, NOTHING GAINED
Ardern took that rejection badly, saying it would be the last time she would try to implement what has always been an unpopular policy. What remains unclear is how flexible and innovative Labour was willing to be to get some kind of capital gains tax onto the statute books, even if a one with limited bite.
Ardern’s very public defeat – and painfully obvious humiliation – is an example of what has been a year of remarkable highs and truly awful lows for the Prime Minister, including her atrocious handling of sexualassault allegations made against a Labour staffer.
Her management of some very difficult issues has veered between the sublime and the very ordinary.
It would be overstating things to suggest that there has been a reversal in the respective performances of Ardern and Bridges compared with 2018.
There is a hint of that. But Bridges has lifted his game. He landed a massive hit on the Government with his capitalising of the Treasury leak.
He has refocused and reoriented the National Party’s basic policy positioning away from the centrist stance of John Key and Bill English during their stints as National’s leader.
He has seen off Judith Collins’ simmering tilt for the leadership. She is no longer a threat.
It is rare for a Leader of the Opposition to deliver a performance as adept, effective, capable and authoritative as Bridges is managing.
His reward? He is now being portrayed as a caretaker leader who will willingly hand over the job to Christopher Luxon the instant the former chief executive of Air New Zealand is confirmed as the new MP for Botany.
It is rare for a Leader of the Opposition to deliver a performance as adept, effective, capable & authoritative.
For Jane Clifton and Chris Slane’s best and worst of the year in politics, see the January 4, 2020 Listener.