Editorial

Replication not guaranteed

Recently, the psychological study claiming you could smile your way to happiness failed under a replication test. For years, this study, which had people put a pen in their mouths to imitate a smile or a frown, was accepted as compelling evidence that even the most subtle cues—whether purposeful or inadvertent— can influence the way a person feels or behaves.

The failure of this test wasn’t unusual. A paper published in Science magazine in 2008 found that results in only 39 of 100 selected psychology experiments could be replicated. It was a pretty damning finding for those hoping to apply the scientific method to psychology and behavioural studies.

Further muddying the water in this space is the way we analyse results. Even the most successful studies don’t always age well, meaning what may have been interpreted one way years ago will look completely different to those revisiting the study today.

One of the most-referenced scientific studies, the marshmallow study, is an example of this. The incredibly ambitious study found children who could resist the temptation of eating one marshmallow for the reward of having two at a later stage would often go on to lead more successful lives. It was a groundbreaking piece of work that led to the long-held belief that selfcontrol—or rationality—was integral to future success.

What the study didn’t consider, however, was the fact many of the children who ate the marshmallow immediately came from lower socio-economic backgrounds. For them, eating the marshmallow was, in many instances, the most rational choice. Based on their personal experiences, they understood the promise of something doesn’t always materialise in that thing at a later stage.

What makes this so fascinating from a marketing perspective is that it shows the degree of difficulty involved in predicting human behaviour. And yet, every time the TVNZ- NZ Marketing Awards roll in, we consistently see examples of marketers executing strategies based on how they anticipate consumers will respond.

Most impressive are the marketers who manage to do this consistently time and time again over careers that span decades. Looking at the body of inspirational work that’s passed through hands of this year’s Marketer of the Year Dave Elliott or Hall of Famer Peter Cullinane, it’s striking how often they’ve been able to tap into the Kiwi psyche and get their strategies just right.

What’s most telling is that what they do changes every year. They don’t bask in the previous year’s glow. They accept human behavioural habits change, and they respond by evolving what they take to market.

Rather than conducting the same psychology experiment over and over again, great marketers understand they’re never communicating with the same audience, and the experiment must always be tweaked to fit the demands of the newcomers.

We congratulate all the marketers who conducted successful experiments this year. Long may it continue.