Northcote leads flock with bells on

The Northcote electorate is a bellwether, or a trendsetter electorate for the whole of New Zealand.

This means that Northcote’s voting percentages used to be able to indicate in advance, who would be the general election winner.

However, since the introduction of the MMP voting system in 1996, it appears the bellwether’s ding is not as loud as it once was.

A bellwether, by definition, is a castrated ram with a bell around its neck, the leader of the sheep herd. As the leader, the dinging of the wether’s bell told the shepherd the direction of the whole flock.

Minister Jonathan Coleman of the National Party, is the incumbent of Northcote and has been in the seat since 2005.

Massey University Associate Professor Grant Duncan said, as far as he can see, it will need quite a big swing to make the seat change hands after Coleman’s healthy 9600 majority last election.

‘‘That’s a big Labour hill to climb,’’ Duncan said.

Coleman has a high profile and has a sensitive portfolio as the minister of health, Duncan said.

‘‘Yes, Coleman had a lot of difficult press but nonetheless I doubt

‘‘Yes, Coleman had a lot of difficult press, but nonetheless I doubt that would reflect on his candidacy’’

Grant Duncan

that would reflect on his candidacy,’’ he said.

However, this does not necessarily mean despondency for the Labour camp.

Thanks to the MMP, the idea of a bellwether seat at the moment is not as clear as it used to be.

The MMP voting system, or mixed member proportional, is the voting system New Zealand currently has, which grants each person two votes: the party vote and the electoral vote.

Duncan said because the MMP has changed the way electorate and the Government are formed, this means traditional trendsetters are not so clear any more.

This means, a party can win the most electoral seats and still not be in a position to form a Government.

‘‘The fact electorates might be looking safe for National, doesn’t necessarily say whether or not there will be a change of government,’’ Duncan said.

‘‘I don’t want to pour water on a commonly held item. But, I am wary to make predictions, at this elections.’’

So, despite the tradition bellwether status, and despite National’s healthy grasp on the Northcote electorate - I wouldn’t count your National chickens, or sheep, just yet.

ALDEN WILLIAMS/STUFF A bellwether is the sheep leader, indicating the direction of the whole herd and similarly a bellwether electorate indicates the direction of the country’s voting.