MMP’s ‘bellwether’ fail

It is time to stop thinking of Northcote electorate as a bellwether, a political theorist says.

The Northcote electorate is traditionally regarded as a trendsetter electorate with its voting percentages expected to indicate which party will win the general election.

However, the National Party’s Jonathan Coleman’s electorate win did not foretell the final outcome, which just goes to show the ‘‘bellwether’’ prediction doesn’t always happen, Massey University associate professor Grant Duncan said.

‘‘This is why we should just do away with bellwether.’’

The idea of a bellwether doesn’t make sense any more and the MMP

‘‘In the North Shore, there is particular disgruntlement, as National got the most seats overall and still didn't get a Government.’’

Grant Duncan, associate professor Massey University

(Mixed Member Proportional) voting system has always put that into question.

‘‘In the North Shore, there is particular disgruntlement, as National got the most seats overall and still didn’t form a Government.’’

The MMP has not changed the way Government is formed, however, that is a misconception, Duncan said.

‘‘New Zealand’s voting system, as with the UK’s, has not changed.’’

The A to B pathway from the voters to the formation of a Government is not clear, he said.

‘‘We elect representatives to the House of Representatives. It has always been that way.

There were very ‘‘ropy’’ results before MMP as well.

It is not the first time a party without the majority has formed a Government.

‘‘The MMP changed that.’’

Therefore, even though National is favoured in the North Shore, if we system hasn’t are thinking about the whole of New Zealand, the results are representational.

National was the single biggest party, but it didn’t get a majority because there has been a swing to the left in terms of the party vote.

In this election there was arguably 6.6 percentage points swing to the left, he said.

‘‘So, you can hardly call it a victory for the right-wing parties.

‘‘If people are confused why National did not form a Government - ask Bill why he didn’t get across the line,’’ he said.

‘‘You don’t always get the Government you wanted.

‘‘But, we don’t know what went on between National and NZ First. We will never know the full story.’’

LAINE MOGER/STUFF Despite the North Shore’s ‘‘blue hue’’, it was a red victory for the Labour party.