THE THIRD DIMENSION
I THINK THIS IS THE BEST BRITISH AND IRISH LIONS THAT WE’VE SEEN COME HERE FOR A LONG, LONG TIME. THERE IS DEPTH ALL THE WAY THROUGH.’ STEVE HANSEN
Most rugby analysis is two dimensional in that the focus falls on the respective personnel and the likely gameplan teams will employ.
It makes sense and if the upcoming series between the British and Irish Lions and All Blacks is put through that model it will be viewed as a contest between a set-piece, physical juggernaut against high-tempo, high skill, counter-attack rugby.
Such a representation is hard to fault. That will be the essence of the series. The Lions are coming with a pack that is loaded with rugged, big men who can get around and who can play with the ball, but are essentially all about their ability to win the ball and smash other big men off their feet.
The All Blacks, as everyone knows, are primarily driven by a desire to play a fast, wide, ball-in-hand game that allows their athletes to express themselves creatively.
It will be a classic clash of contrasting styles, with the Lions almost certain to use their bulk and power to try to suffocate the All Blacks.
“It’s pretty much what you’d expect from Warren [Gatland],” All Blacks coach Steve Hansen said when the Lions announced their squad.
“He likes his big ball carriers in the middle of the park and his big grunty forwards so that’s what he’s picked and I’d expect we’ll get a similar game-style to whatever we’ve got when we’ve played a Warren Gatland team.
“I think this is the best British and Irish Lions that we’ve seen come here for a long, long time. There is depth all the way through, that’s why people like [Dylan] Hartley and some of the Scottish boys have missed out because there’s so much depth.
“You’ve only got to look at the fiveeighths. A guy like Finn Russell’s been playing extremely well and can’t even make the team because they’ve got Sexton, Farrell and Biggar there, you’ve also got young Ford missing out.
“I think they’ll tell us they will [play an expansive game], but I think they will want to win up front first.”
As much as all this is a true picture of what awaits, it lacks inclusion of the third dimension. And that third dimension is critical, however much it may be ignored or misunderstood.
Test football is not just about the respective abilities of the two sets of players to deliver on their potential and stick to their plan. A huge part of the game is coping with the psychological challenge.
The pressure that comes at that level is enormous. It is real and it has a major impact on the ability of teams to perform.
Those who haven’t played rugby at that level tend to either dismiss the importance of handling pressure or fail to factor it in when analysing a likely outcome.
But it would be silly in the case of the Lions series to not have some realisation that the pressure will be off the scale.
It’s not an ordinary state of affairs by any means. It’s not like a normal test match
because the Lions only come together every four years. They are the pinnacle of the Northern game – so many great players all hoping to be picked, all aware of the jersey they represent.
For their opponents, the chance to play the Lions only comes around every 12 years. For a handful of All Blacks, older ones, they have been targeting this series for years. They see it as being up there with a World Cup – a huge event that can define a career.
The rarity of it all gives it huge value and public interest. New Zealanders have been waiting for this series for a long time. As much as the Lions provide career landmarks, they are also social histories in their own right. They are a means for New Zealand to present itself to the world as a tourism destination like no other and for rugby to be pinned at the heart of it all.
For the Lions players there is the knowledge that they have the chance to make history – to win a series in New Zealand for only the second time. There will be 20,000 of their own fans in New Zealand hoping for that same outcome and, for six weeks, it will be impossible to escape the media hype around the tour.
That third dimension, therefore, is going to be impossible to ignore. How each team copes with the scrutiny, the noise in the stadiums and the expectations of victory will have a huge bearing on the series.
It will be a little like a World Cup knock-out game – a sense of drama hanging over every play and the players, if they aren’t focused and mentally strong, will be vulnerable to freezing up: they will be prone to making poor decisions that put their team under more pressure.
And while the public may not think of the third dimension in their analysis, Hansen certainly does.
There are plenty of reasons why Hansen was able to step into the All Blacks coaching job in 2012 and have immediate success.
Some may say it was because he inherited a quality team, which he did.
But plenty of teams with quality players and sound gameplans don’t win as often as they should. What Hansen took into the job was a clear understanding that his players could only deliver if they were equipped to deal with the pressure and expectation that comes with being an All Black.
It is a relentless and demanding task playing test football. And it is possibly twice as tough for those players picked to do it for the All Blacks.
No other country puts so much expectation on its national rugby team. No other nation puts its players under the same sort of intense scrutiny and no other nation has such an incredible record to protect. Being an All Black is a 24/7 job that is mentally draining.
But that’s the challenge for all those who make it that far. They have to not only have the talent to earn their selection, but also the mental resilience, the maturity and temperament to handle all the unique pressures that come with the territory.
Hansen has never doubted the difficulty of being an All Black and has respected that even the most talented players can struggle to find their feet in the team and also in international rugby.
If he has done one thing better than his predecessors it has been to recognise the significance of the third dimension and respect its ability to influence players. He’s learned to never underestimate the ability of test football to expose a player’s mental frailty or lack of self-belief.
TEST FOOTBALL IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE RESPECTIVE ABILITIES OF THE TWO SETS OF PLAYERS TO DELIVER ON THEIR POTENTIAL AND STICK TO THEIR PLAN. A HUGE PART OF THE GAME IS COPING WITH THE PSYCHOLOGICAL CHALLENGE.’
YOU DON’T REALLY ANSWER THE MENTAL FORTITUDE THING UNTIL YOU BRING THEM IN FROM A TRAINING POINT OF VIEW AND THEN FROM A GAME POINT OF VIEW. ONCE WE GET THEM HERE IT IS ABOUT WATCHING THEM, UNDERSTANDING THEM GETTING TO KNOW THEM TO SEE HOW THEY ARE COPING.’ STEVE HANSEN
He’s seen a few crack over the years – good players who earned their selection and then couldn’t adapt to the test arena.
Some who have struggled, he maybe had an inkling they would, plenty of others though have surprised.
“You try to get as much information as you can about people,” says Hansen. “As a selector you are selecting them on a number of things. One is their playing ability and their talent. How much room for improvement do you think they have got and then their mental fortitude.
“You don’t really answer the mental fortitude thing until you bring them in from a training point of view and then from a game point of view. Once we get them here it is about watching them, understanding them getting to know them to see how they are coping.
“It is pretty obvious – for me anyway – when they are coping and it is obvious when they are not. You give them a little bit of a taste if you think they are ready and see how they go.
“A lot of the young guys when they do play you can’t play them over and over again because you can burn them out and put them in a position where they start to drop off.
“So it is about picking the right time to give them a breather and let them step out of the playing side and just mentally relax a wee bit. I guess it is all about following your own instincts and being aware of what your athlete is capable of and the only way you can do that is by getting to know them and watching them at training and around the environment.”
And that’s how it will always be. Even in this information age where data exists on almost everything, selecting players is not an exact science. Plenty can be done to minimise the risk, but there is still an element of the unknown – there is still no certainty that players are ready to cope with being an All Black.
“The biggest thing is the pressure,” says Hansen. “It is not like being in a Super Rugby franchise. The demands are greater. The scrutiny is definitely greater and whether you are a staff member or a player, you walk into it and you can just feel it. It is there and for some people it can be overwhelming.
“It challenges you to really understand whether you are good enough to be there. That would probably be one of the feelings you would get and it is important that you don’t put people in a situation where they have to show you what they can do when they are doubting their own self-belief. They have got to be confident and time in the environment helps them with their confidence.
“We try to make it as easy as possible for them but at the same time there is always that scrutiny. It is there all the time – it is 24/7 – and it is hard work for some.”
When the All Blacks arrived in England for the 2015 World Cup, there was, probably because England were hosts, plenty of media chatter about the burden of expectation and the role pressure would play in determining the eventual winner.
The knockout format is the one time everyone can appreciate the third dimension. And so there was ample commentary about which teams would crack and which would likely hold it all together.
For the All Blacks it was a situation they relished and turned to their advantage. As they continued to tell everyone, living with pressure is the norm for them.
Every test they play they are burdened with expectation and the internal demands are so high that players are constantly on edge.
Hansen’s point at the World Cup was that the situation would be new and challenging for all the other teams, but business as usual for the All Blacks.
And this theory can be applied to the Lions series. Again, the pressure gauge may be deemed to have been twisted tighter than normal, but the All Blacks won’t notice. They are playing at home, where they haven’t lost since 2009, so they are expected, as always, to win.
Nothing else but a series win will satisfy them and their followers – which is no different to normal.
For many of the Lions players, the series will put them in unusual territory. The burden of expectation is not the same for England as it is for New Zealand. It certainly doesn’t weigh as heavily on the Irish and Welsh and many of the players coming with the Lions simply won’t have had much experience at dealing with pressure.
Hansen, as a huge believer in the importance of the third dimension, is clearly going to look to remind the Lions of this as the series approaches.
“They are going to be a very good side and they’ll come with a lot of expectation,” he says. “Which I think is going to be interesting to see how they cope with that.
“A lot more expectation than they’ve been used to because people expect them to win.”
British and Irish Lions coach Warren Gatland is no stranger to the third dimension. He knows it’s real. He knows players are affected by their emotions and the pressure on the biggest stage.
Like Hansen, Gatland has been around for a long time, he’s seen enough rugby to know that mental resilience is going to be a huge factor in determining this series.
And that’s why it would appear as if he’s placed considerable value on those Irish players who so brilliantly masterminded their first victory in history against the All Blacks last November.
It was a tremendous performance by the Irish in Chicago, one that not only showed tremendous skill execution but also bold decision-making and clear thinking in the final quarter.
“As coaches, you’re trying to deliver that message sometimes when you’re playing the All Blacks, about confidence and self-belief. You’re not too sure when you get that glazed look from the players if they honestly believe that,” Gatland said when he unveiled his squad.
“So, Ireland doing that in Chicago was pretty special. Especially considering at 27-8 or whatever it was at half-time, you think they’re going to comfortably do it and to see the All Blacks come back and almost look like they were going to steal it and then for the Irish to, in that last 10 minutes, put them under pressure…
“And to see some of those world-class players be human, make some mistakes, show some frailties… that gives you that self-belief and confidence.
“Always as a coach you’re trying to deliver that message, to put players and teams under pressure and they are human and they will make mistakes. Andy Farrell being a coach with England and Ireland, the Ireland players having won and some of the England players having won in 2012… you’ve got to go there believing.”
The subtext is clear, that the Lions think they can use their set-piece and control at the collisions to frustrate and rattle the All Blacks: to keep them pinned in their own territory and ultimately be wound up into feeling the
pressure of the occasion by not being able to escape the clutches of the Lions as it were.
He didn’t go so far as to say that he felt the All Blacks were vulnerable to the pressure, but he hinted strongly enough that he thinks the Lions could expose some frailties if they push the right buttons.
Gatland also, in just about the same breath, hinted that he feels that another area of vulnerability for the All Blacks is their goalkicking.
“Looking at the squad, the point of difference is maybe our goalkicking,”said Gatland. “I think we’ve got four or five of the world’s best goalkickers going with us and if we’re going to have an edge somewhere it could be in that area.
“Beauden Barrett is not kicking at the moment, his brother is for the Hurricanes and it may be the difference.”
Again, as goalkicking is a hugely psychological discipline, Gatland’s subtext was clear – that he thinks the All Blacks lack the mental skills to kick well under pressure.
It was a point that fired up Hansen. The All Blacks coach was quick to respond, saying that statistics alone don’t tell the full story of a goalkicker’s value. He went on to remind Gatland of a test between Ireland and the All Blacks in 2013 in Dublin, when likely Lions first-five Johnny Sexton missed an easy kick with seven minutes remaining.
If he’d landed it, the Irish would have gone 10 points in front. They would have won. But Sexton lost his nerve. He took an unusually long time and as he stood staring at the ball then the posts, the ball then the posts, it was as if he was talking himself out of doing it. The longer he took the more it looked like he felt the full weight of history sitting on his shoulders and when he finally made contact with the ball, he fell off it slightly and it drifted wide.
Right there was the best example of the third dimension and for New Zealanders, it was yet another powerful reminder that pressure can be the darndest thing.
“I remember a game in 2013 [against Ireland],” said Hansen. “Statistics don’t mean anything when pressure is involved. They [Ireland] should have won the game with goal kicking, but we did with a guy kicking from the sideline.
“They have some very, very good
AND TO SEE SOME OF THOSE WORLD-CLASS PLAYERS BE HUMAN, MAKE SOME MISTAKES, SHOW SOME FRAILTIES… THAT GIVES YOU THAT SELF-BELIEF AND CONFIDENCE.’ WARREN GATLAND
goalkickers, no disputing that, and goalkicking is very important to the game, no disputing that, but it’s all about how you deal with the pressure in the big moments. Our guys in the big moments have done us proud, Beauden and Crudes [Aaron Cruden].
“Lima [Sopoaga] will come back and he’s a very good goalkicker. It’s under pressure which counts, not the ones in front.”
If the Lions series is judged on just two dimensions, it’s hard to know which way it will go. The All Blacks have so many individual game breakers and such a cohesive and abrasive pack that it is hard to see them being contained.
Yet Ireland did just that last November and encouraged the Lions to believe they can suffocate their hosts and batter their way to victory in New Zealand just the same way. And who knows, that might be the right strategy for the Lions to leave these shores victorious.
But the series can’t be judged on just two dimensions. It’s ridiculous to imagine that pressure won’t play an enormous role in dictating who wins.
Players will be challenged in so many different ways to get their discipline right, to prepare well and to keep a cool head for three tests.
Viewed through all three dimensions, maybe New Zealand have the edge. Maybe the fact they are under so much pressure all of the time gives them a slight advantage. Playing at home is always helpful in dealing with pressure too, and if there is one final factor in their favour, it is that they are coached by a man who has long understood the significance and influence of the third dimension.
THEY HAVE SOME VERY, VERY GOOD GOALKICKERS, NO DISPUTING THAT, AND GOALKICKING IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE GAME, NO DISPUTING THAT, BUT IT’S ALL ABOUT HOW YOU DEAL WITH THE PRESSURE IN THE BIG MOMENTS.’ STEVE HANSEN