COLUMNS
TONY JOHNSON IS A COMMENTATOR AND PRESENTER FOR SKY TV’S RUGBY COVERAGE IN NEW ZEALAND.
Sky’s Tony Johnson is already looking ahead to November where he wonders what effect a certain game at Twickenham might have.
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2018, how big is November and can it possibly live up to expectation?
Not just the biggest game this year, by the time the All Blacks versus England game kicks off in November it will probably be the most hyped match between the 2015 and 2019 World Cups.
The British and Irish Lions tour, wherever it may be, is supposed to have top billing in the between years, but New Zealand’s continued, if not quite dominating success, and England’s impressive rebirth under Eddie Jones have made this one-off encounter, the first since New Zealand’s November 2014 victory at Twickenham, one of the more anticipated games in modern history.
Whoever wins will claim the front foot ahead of Japan 2019. Whoever loses will no doubt play it down publicly and start burning the midnight oil behind closed doors.
The media will be a frenzy, with poisoned barbs beforehand and a chorus of recriminations afterwards.
Whilst it’s tempting to think this one game shouldn’t have any bearing on 2019, it is worth remembering the boost England got from their win in Wellington in 2003, and it’s hard not to think a win this November would be an equally massive shot in their arm.
Jones is a master schemer from way back. He came up with a simple but devastatingly effective plan to unstitch the 2003 All Blacks in Sydney, was probably more of a factor in the Springboks World Cup triumph in 2007 than he’ll ever be credited for, and of course inspired Japan’s scarcely believable upset of the Boks in 2015.
His record against the All Blacks demands respect. Between his appointment in 2001 and his sacking in 2005 his Wallabies won five of 11 against New Zealand.
He is a smart coach, a great strategist and has made big strides with England, but his successes have tended towards the short-lived and there is always the hint of a ticking time bomb.
It could end in a great triumph, but it could also go pear shaped very quickly, and that’s part of the fascination. November 10 will be a signpost.
The All Blacks will outwardly be keen to avoid this one game being held up as an indicator of their trajectory a year out from the World Cup, but Steve Hansen will be hungry to win it nonetheless, not just for his own team’s sake, but because he knows if England win it’ll be Jones who’ll be seen to be on the right track, in the right car, on the front of the grid, while an England loss would light the blowtorch.
There are plenty of other pressing matters to be addressed in 2018. How big will the Wayne Smith shoes be to fill? Life starts in earnest without the professor. Scott McLeod made a good start in late 2017, with defence a key to those victories over France and Scotland when the fuel warning light was starting to flash, but the departure of Smith takes away a man of great wisdom, a calming, reassuring presence and an innovative mind.
When Dan Carter went down at the 2011 World Cup the talk was of everyone else having to step it up a few per cent to make up for his absence. Same applies in the wake of Smith’s departure.
Can the All Blacks get back in favour with the refs?
In both of the last two years the All Blacks were shown eight yellow cards in 14 games. Twice in 2017 they copped two in one game, and the Lions series swung on the Sonny Bill Williams’ red in Wellington.
Some of the offences were not at all smart, and could have resulted in more than the two defeats suffered, while others, such as the Sam Whitelock yellow in the Wales game, were a miscarriage.
It is disturbing that World Rugby would not offer anything on the farcical ending to the Lions series.
There is little doubt that many, north of the equator in particular, have long tired of the game being dominated by one team, and have complained long and hard that the All Blacks have been getting away with too much for too long. Maybe the squeaky wheel has gained some traction.
Regardless, more care will be needed.
If there’s an element of the ticking time bomb about Fast Eddie, then what about Angry Mike?
Trans-Tasman rugby relations have been frosty ever since the 2003 World Cup hosting fracas, but hit sub-Arctic in the aftermath of ‘Spygate’. Things behind the scenes have apparently been fractious, with one particularly uncomfortable scene due to the Wallaby coach’s unwavering belief that the All Blacks tried to pin the hidden microphone on him.
Michael Cheika has some strong credentials and a team capable of big things, but is playing a dangerous game with his conduct in the coaches’ box, his post-match rants, and a hard-nosed approach to coaching that some revel in, others not so much.
His victory over the All Blacks in October was well deserved, but not the turning point Aussies had hoped for, with two crushing defeats the following month, both due in no small way to crazy lapses in discipline.
Having the outstanding David Pocock back this year should help immeasurably, but like his fellow Randwick man Eddie Jones with England, this could be the year it either gets great for Cheika, or it really does blow up.
Can women’s rugby go pro?
Times really are changing when Saudi Arabia starts letting women spectators into sports events, while back here in the 21st century the time has never been better for a better deal for our women rugby players.
The best bet would surely involve Australia in a trans-Tasman, or even a South Pacific comp, but unless the new Government is to get involved on behalf of public television, all will hinge on the new TV deal to be negotiated this year.
And will the new Super Rugby format hit the spot?
New Zealand will be strong again, and downsizing should improve Australia and South Africa, so it should be more competitive, even if the format is still flawed.
With a new deal and more format changes on the horizon, the heat now goes on Japan and Argentina to cement their future. A little more ambition, especially from Japan’s governing body, would help.