Coalition predicted — polls
THE National Party seems likely to be in the box seat to form the next government after tomorrow’s election but it has fewer options than Labour and could still fail to cobble together a coalition.
Labour needs a big turnout of young voters to come to its aid today and tomorrow.
More than 1.1 million people are expected to cast early votes but the numbers of younger people enrolling is down on previous elections.
Both Prime Minister Bill English and Labour leader Jacinda Ardern admit the contest is tight and they will be campaigning until the last minute.
Every vote counts when it comes to being in a position to form the next government.
National usually benefits from a wet or cold polling day but early voting may have put paid to that option.
The latest New Zealand Herald election forecast shows National edging towards a majority, but still falling short of being able to govern alone, which is a trait of New Zealand’s MMP voting system.
To form a government, a party or coalition needs at least 61 out of 120 seats, or to reach a confidenceandsupply agreement.
National is projected to win 56 seats in the next parliament, Labour 49. According to the forecast model, a LabourGreen coalition would win 58 seats, although New Zealand First could hold the balance of power for either party.
However, recent overseas election outcomes warn against putting too much stock in polls.
If NZ First leader Winston Peters is involved in the coalition discussions, there will be nearly three weeks of uncertainty until the government’s composition is known.
National can count only on Act New Zealand MP David Seymour for support, although Mr English needs to look further than just the Act’s one vote.
Mr Seymour has done more damage to National with his unusual campaign than anything Labour or the Greens have thrown at the party by making campaign promises noone can take seriously.
The poll of polls yesterday also showed National ahead but needing support.
Both Mr English and Labour’s Ms Ardern have been stressing voters support their respective parties with two ticks, rather than split their votes.
The Greens and NZ First are the casualties of that campaign.
Labour is gaining votes from the Greens and National is wooing back NZ First voters, particularly from rural areas.
On the latest polls, the Maori Party would only have one seat, if coleader Te Ururoa Flavell holds his seat.
That would take National to 58, still needing three more to govern.
It is possible the Maori Party may win another electorate and Hone Harawira will take Te Tai Tokerau from Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis, as the Maori Party is not standing in the seat.
That does not help National, as Mr Harawira is left of the political spectrum.
The latest forecast has NZ First projected to get 6.2% of the party vote and seven seats.
That will mean Lawrence farmer Mark Patterson will be elected to Parliament on the list and former Labour cabinet minister Shane Jones is unlikely to return to Parliament as NZ First MP.
The polls are showing more volatility than normal, due to leadership changes.
Previous forecasts of Invercargill being represented by three women will prove incorrect on current polling.
NZ First MP Ria Bond will not return to Parliament unless the party vote rises substantially.
If Labour candidate Liz Craig does not win the electorate from National’s Sarah Dowie, her chances of election through the list are lessened.