It’s not worth acting yet on sealevel rise

THE Otago Regional Council is planning to waste $4 million of ratepayers’ money on climate change. How much does it cost to read a tide gauge?

The Otago Harbour tide gauge over the last 100 years showed sealevel rise of an average 1.2mm/year. This is reality — it measures the height where you get your feet wet. All other claims are pure speculation based on failed models.

The measured global satellite sealevel rise is about 1mm/year — the claimed 3.2mm/year comes from highly dubious adjustments. It is not a measured increase in the physical height of the sea.

Claims of acceleration come from changes in adjustments. It is not seen in the longterm tide gauge records.

The Flynn analysis coupled extrapolation of an El Ninocaused upturn in the satellite sea levels with an extreme, now invalid, IPCC scenario. The El Nino has gone and so has the upturn. The satellite data has been flat for two years now.

The Green Island gauge shows a higher rate of sealevel rise but it sits between two significant faultlines. Its higher rate is almost certainly due to tectonic subsidence and, until that has been evaluated, its data is pretty meaningless

So it comes back to how much does it cost to monitor reality, from the tide gauges at Port Chalmers and Dunedin.

Until they show an increase of more than 10mm/year for a decade or two, then we do not have a problem and should not waste money on it. Peter Foster

Merton