US reporting likely to be main driver in busy week
THE United States Junequarter reporting season starts this week and is likely to drive markets more than anything else in coming days, Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms says.
More than 50 Standard & Poor’s 500 constituents are due to report, including several highprofile companies. These include one of the top performers of the year, Netflix.
Investors would hear from the Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, he said.
Others of note were American Express, Microsoft, Schlumberger, General Electric and Honeywell.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will give his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow and the House Financial Services Committee the following day.
Mr Powell’s testimony should largely reflect the minutes of the June Fed meeting, as he will be testifying on behalf of the Federal Open Market Committee.
‘‘The June minutes reflected a generally upbeat economic outlook and broad support among participants for continuing along the path of ‘gradual’ firming. However, policymakers did note rising risks to the economic outlook, including that of trade.’’
The S&P 500 recorded its best closing season since February on Friday, finishing above 2800 points as shares in Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft helped boost the index, Mr Timms said.
The technologyrich Nasdaq Composite also posted a record close, while the bluechip Dow Jones rose by 0.4%.
Locally, the main events would include the latest Consumer Price Index inflation data and Real Estate Institute monthly housing statistics, he said.
The Reserve Bank was forecasting an increase of 0.4% for the quarter and 1.5% on an annual basis, still benign com pared with the 1% to 3% target range and 2% midpoint.
Currency and oil price moves were likely to have affected inflation.
On a tradeweighted basis, the dollar was 1.5% lower on average in the three months ended June relative to the three months ended March, Mr Timms said.
Compared with the same period last year, the currency was 3.6% lower.
‘‘This will have bumped up tradeables inflation, as a slightly weaker currency leads to less global purchasing power. Fuel costs have risen strongly on the back of higher oil prices.’’
The Real Estate Institute data was delayed for release last week. A month ago, the national house price index fell 0.1% as a 0.6% fall in Auckland dragged down the 0.4% rise in the rest of the country.
On an annual basis, Auckland was again the laggard, rising just 0.6%, while elsewhere, the annual gain was a more respectable 6.8%.
Sales volumes in May increased 1.3% on a year earlier.
Early tomorrow morning, the GlobalDairyTrade figures would be released.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley expected prices to regain some of their lost ground.
Futures pricing suggested whole milk powder prices would rise by up to 3%.
Much of the fall at the last auction followed falling currencies in key buyer markets, he said.
The Chinese currency fell 5% before the previous auction and since then, the yuan had remained soft.
‘‘As a result, we expect only a partial rebound from the fall at the previous auction — less than indicated by futures pricing.’’
Later in the week, the rising number of permanent and longterm departures from New Zealand was likely to have continued, given robust labour mar ket conditions across the
Tasman, he said.
Statistics New Zealand would release its immigration and visitor numbers data on Friday.
Mr Tuffley said the stable New Zealand domestic backdrop was expected to maintain the strong allure of New Zealand as a destination for overseas emigrants, although tweaks to immigration rules could cause a tailing off in arrival numbers over the next year or so.
He expected annual net permanent and longterm inflows to slow to about 45,000 by the end of next year.
‘‘Despite this, we are likely to see strong visitor arrival numbers that are expected to hover around annual record highs.’’
Increasing connectivity through more direct flights to Australia, the United States and the more rapidly growing Asian region was paying dividends, he said.
Expanding capacity and offering goodvalue experiences for tourists remained the major challenges for the tourism industry.