Caution urged regarding latest jobs data

JOB advertisements are increasing but ANZ senior economist Liz Kendall is warning against reading too much into the monthly move on the ANZ Job Ads index.

The 3.1% rise in July in part reflected monthly volatility.

‘‘Looking through this volatility, job ads point to labour market stability.’’

So far, the labour market had been resilient in the face of downbeat business sentiment. Clouds might now be forming over the outlook, she said.

Hiring intentions and activity expectations had fallen, which could mean recent strength in the labour market being eroded.

Annual growth in job advertisements were recorded at 4.7%. The month’s move was affected by an unusual bump in healthcare advertisements.

Without the bump, job advertisements increased by 1.6% month on month and 4.2% annually.

Monthly volatility aside, job advertisements were pointing to the unemployment rate remaining steady at its current 4.5%, Ms Kendall said.

Wellington advertisements were a key source of growth in the past year. Wellington advertisements increased 3.1% in July to be up 10.8% for the year.

In contrast, the other main centres were dragging on growth with fewer job advertisements in both Auckland and Canterbury.

Waikato (15.2%), Bay of Plenty (18.2%) and Otago (17.7%) had also contributed significantly to growth in job advertisements in the past year, the index showed.

Some other regions had reported solid growth, including Gisborne, West Coast and Southland. However, they made up a smaller share of job advertisements.

Ms Kendall said the labour market was close to full employment although underlying wage growth was subdued. Wage inflation would continue to be boosted by minimum wage increases. Underlying wage pressures were expected to improve only gradually from here.