Reserve Bank monetary policy statement the main event

THE Reserve Bank’s monetary policy statement on Thursday will be the main economic event of the week but there are other economic indicators worth noting.

The July performance in manufacturing index (PMI) is due out on Friday, along with electronic cards transactions for July.

BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis said yesterday the manufacturing index would be most important to him and his colleagues.

In June, the PMI dropped to 52.8, 0.6 below its longterm average.

The PMI and Performance in Services Index had been indicating the real economy continued to perform better than the confidence indicators suggested would be the case.

‘‘We are hopeful they continue to do so. But if this is to be the case, we will need the PMI to remain at or above current levels. We will watch this indicator with substantial interest.’’

The card transactions data was the first month affected by the fiscal easing affecting households, he said.

BNZ was forecasting a 0.5% increase in spending but acknowledged the downside risks to the forecast were significant.

Early tomorrow, the GlobalDairyTrade auction results would be known, Mr Toplis said.

‘‘We are not expecting any significant change in pricing in either direction.’’

Also tomorrow, the Reserve Bank would publish its latest inflation expectation findings. There was not likely to be any excitement in the data, he said.

The Reserve Bank was expected to repeat its May monetary policy statement on Thursday.

A lot of things had happened to feel nervous about, Mr Toplis said.

At the head of any list was very weak business confidence which, if sustained, would suggest a much lower growth path than the BNZ and Reserve Bank were projecting.

There has been a modest softening in many of the economy’s partial indicators. Those included retail sales, car sales, net migration, housing market activity and commodity prices.

‘‘If growth does falter and free up significant capacity, we might have to change our view of the world. But, as we see it, inflation is still on the up.’’

The local company reporting season is starting but only a few companies will report this week; things get busier during the following fortnight.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said New Zealand companies SkyCity, Property for Industry and Vital Healthcare were due to report results this week. Argosy would hold its annual meeting.

In Australia, IOOF, Transurban, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (the owner of New Zealand’s ASB), AMP and AGL were due to report earnings.

James Hardie would hold its annual meeting and provide a quarterly update.

‘‘Commonwealth Bank and AMP will be of particular interest, given the focus on the financial sector in Australia in recent months.’’

The global reporting season was winding down; more than 80% of the S&P 500 companies had reported their results.

There were still about 70 S&P 500 companies due to report this week, including the likes of Disney, CVS Health, Southern Company, Viacom and News Corp.