100plus seats switch to Remain
MORE than 100 Westminster constituencies that voted to leave the EU have now switched their support to Remain, according to a stark new analysis seen by The Observer.
In findings that could have a significant impact on the parliamentary battle of Brexit later this year, the study concludes that most seats in Britain now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.
The analysis, one of the most comprehensive assessments of
Brexit sentiment since the referendum, suggests the shift has been driven by doubts among Labour voters who backed Leave.
As a result, the trend is starkest in the Labour heartlands of the north of England and Wales. The development will heap further pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to soften the party’s opposition to reconsidering Britain’s EU departure.
Researchers at the Focaldata consumer analytics company modelled two YouGov polls of more than 15,000 people in total, conducted before and after Theresa May published her proposed Brexit deal on July 6.
It combined the polling with detailed census information and data from the Office for National Statistics. The study was jointly commissioned by Best for Britain, which is campaigning against Brexit, and the antiracist Hope Not Hate group.
The 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales were examined for the study, which found that 112 had switched from Leave to Remain. The new analysis suggests there are now 341 seats with majority Remain support, up from 229 seats at the referendum.
One seat has switched support in Scotland and 97 have switched in England, while 14 of the 40 seats in Wales have changed from Leave to Remain. Overall, the model puts Remain on 53% support, with 47% backing Leave.
It suggests that there is now a majority for Remain in Scotland and Wales, meaning greater pressure on the union following the UK’s departure. Young voters and those from ethnic minorities have also driven the switch to Remain.
It comes with the Prime Minister still having to negotiate Commons votes over Brexit later this year and also the prospect of a parliamentary vote over the final Brexit deal. Plans are already being drawn up by May’s opponents to try to force a new referendum or election.
The data scientists who compiled the study used a technique known as multilevel regression and poststratification, similar to that used by YouGov in its preelection model, which proved far more accurate than conventional opinion polls.
However, YouGov’s polling sample for the election was much bigger, at about 50,000 people.
Among the constituencies to switch from Leave to Remain is that of Boris Johnson, the face of the Leave campaign. Support for Remain in his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency has risen from 43.6% to 51.4%, according to the new model.
Surrey Heath, the constituency of the other Leave figurehead, Michael Gove, also had a proRemain majority. Support for Remain increased from 48% in 2016 to 50.2%. There was also a 12.8point swing to Remain in shadow chancellor John McDonnell’s seat of Hayes and Harlington.
Remain campaigners said the findings should give more MPs the confidence to back a Brexit rethink.
‘‘The sands of public opinion are shifting and politicians risk falling behind,’’ chief executive of Best for Britain Eloise Todd said.
‘‘Our research shows that the deal must be put to the people.’’
However, some proRemain MPs are still doubtful that there has been a significant shift and think a second vote would be a huge risk. — Guardian News and Media