Roll growth at primary level bodes well

THE tide appears to be turning on Dunedin’s declining secondary school rolls.

Last year they reached their lowest level in two decades, and although they have increased by only two pupils this year, the strong increase in primary rolls is providing a positive outlook.

Recently released Ministry of Education March roll return data shows Otago school rolls have increased nearly 8% and Southland school rolls have increased by 1.4% over the past decade. Both increases were largely driven by increases in primary school rolls.

Kaikorai Valley College principal Rick Geerlofs said his roll had increased from 458 to 492 pupils in the past year, and put the increase down to growing rolls at surrounding primary schools.

Primary rolls across the city increased 17.5% over the past decade.

‘‘It’s interesting. We were in discussions with the Ministry of Education a couple of years ago and their numbers predicted a flattening out, a plateauing, for a period of time.

‘‘But that’s not been our experience. I think we are seeing a turning of the tide, so to speak, and the numbers are starting to creep upwards.

‘‘We are aware that a couple of our contributing schools have some reasonably large cohorts coming through that will soon filter through to the secondary system.

‘‘We’ve got a reasonably positive outlook.’’

He said the predicted increase in jobs associated with the hospital rebuild and other projects would probably bring even more pupils to the city.

However, he said the growth brought new concerns for schools.

More pupils meant more teachers would be needed, but teacher numbers were declining.

‘‘The teaching profession is heading towards a crisis situation.

‘‘We’ve got an ageing teaching population and I don’t think enough is being done to ensure that we will have enough qualified people to take the place of those who are considering the next stage of life.’’

Many would retire in the next five years, he said.

Otago’s overall roll growth is driven largely by the rolls of the Lakes District and Central Otago schools.

Lakes District school rolls have increased by nearly 2000 pupils (71%) over the past decade, and the growth is showing no signs of slowing.

Wanaka Primary School alone has gone from 353 pupils in 2009 to 680 this year — a 93% increase.

Central Otago rolls have increased 19% over the past decade, from 2910 in 2009 to 3456 this year.

The overall roll of Southland schools has increased 1.4% to more than 16,200 pupils, thanks to the steady rise in rural school rolls.

Invercargill rolls have also increased to their highest level in the past decade, thanks to a surge in primary school rolls.

North and East Otago rolls remain steady, and West Otago rolls have broken the 400pupil mark for the first time in a decade.

However, South Otago rolls have declined from 2497 to 2212 over the past decade, and Gore school rolls have steadily declined to their lowest point in a decade — dropping to below 2000 pupils.

West Gore School principal Linda Fraser put it down to an ageing population in the area.

Mrs Fraser said the Gore District Council was working very hard on economic development in the area, which included opening a new subdivision in East Gore with ‘‘more affordable and attractive’’ housing, and it was supporting the new Mataura Valley Milk milk powder factory at McNab.

It was hoped the developments would attract more young families to the area, she said.